Persistent geopolitical conflict and ongoing attacks have kept visible commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 3-5% of pre-crisis levels as of late September 2026, with major carriers suspending transits amid severe war-risk premiums and Iranian claims of control. Recent vessel strikes, GPS jamming, and U.S. naval coordination for limited dark-ship movements underscore that normal operations—defined by routine AIS-tracked commercial flows without military escorts or elevated insurance costs—remain far off, driving the 96.7% market-implied probability for “No.” Tail risks include a rapid diplomatic breakthrough or cessation of hostilities that could restore open transit before October 31, though entrenched military dynamics make such shifts improbable.