Ongoing security risks from the Iran-related Hormuz crisis, including uncleared mines, conflicting Iranian and U.S.-backed transit corridors, and repeated vessel attacks, underpin the 90.5% market-implied odds against normalized traffic by November 30. Current AIS data shows commercial transits at roughly 5% of pre-crisis levels, with war-risk insurance premiums elevated and shipowners favoring dark transits or rerouting. Recent projectile strikes and permit requirements have further deterred volume recovery. A durable ceasefire enabling coordinated mine clearance and unified routing could shift sentiment, though persistent geopolitical frictions and dual-regime frictions make swift normalization improbable within the timeframe.