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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

icon for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

19% chance
Polymarket

$58,333,263 Vol.

19% chance
Polymarket

$58,333,263 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy following the 2026 conflict has shifted focus toward negotiated de-escalation rather than sustained military escalation. Joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes beginning in late February 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear and military sites, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliation, but a ceasefire took hold by April with a formal memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June. That framework lifted elements of the U.S. naval blockade, authorized temporary waivers on Iranian oil exports, and launched a 60-day negotiation window—extended through technical talks—on sanctions relief, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear limits under IAEA oversight. Ongoing mediation by Pakistan and Qatar, combined with statements from U.S. officials emphasizing economic reconstruction incentives over further force, has reinforced trader expectations that Washington will prioritize diplomatic stabilization through the remainder of 2026 rather than commit ground forces for a full-scale invasion.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$58,333,263
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran diplomacy following the 2026 conflict has shifted focus toward negotiated de-escalation rather than sustained military escalation. Joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes beginning in late February 2026 targeted Iranian nuclear and military sites, prompting Iranian missile and drone retaliation, but a ceasefire took hold by April with a formal memorandum of understanding signed in mid-June. That framework lifted elements of the U.S. naval blockade, authorized temporary waivers on Iranian oil exports, and launched a 60-day negotiation window—extended through technical talks—on sanctions relief, freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear limits under IAEA oversight. Ongoing mediation by Pakistan and Qatar, combined with statements from U.S. officials emphasizing economic reconstruction incentives over further force, has reinforced trader expectations that Washington will prioritize diplomatic stabilization through the remainder of 2026 rather than commit ground forces for a full-scale invasion.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$58,333,263
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 19% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 19¢, the market collectively assigns a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" has generated $58.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" is 19% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.