Ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities, initiated by joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in February 2026 and evolving into a war of attrition by September, center on missile and drone exchanges, naval actions around the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions rather than ground operations. Recent indirect diplomacy at the UN General Assembly, including Qatari-mediated talks on reopening the strait in exchange for lifting blockades, reflects efforts to de-escalate short of broader commitment. U.S. officials have discussed potential expanded strikes or limited territorial actions in prior months, yet no verified preparations for a full-scale invasion have advanced amid mounting costs, congressional scrutiny, and midterm timing. Trader consensus at 83.5% against invasion before 2027 aligns with the pattern of calibrated military pressure paired with negotiation channels.