Russian forces captured Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in late December 2025 to early January 2026 after sustained assaults, with independent mapping and Ukrainian officers confirming full or near-full control by February. As of early August 2026, the Institute for the Study of War reports continued Russian offensive operations in the Huliaipole direction without confirmed territorial gains, alongside Ukrainian defensive actions and strikes on Russian logistics and equipment in the rear. Clashes persist near surrounding settlements such as Zaliznychne, Vozdvyzhivka, and Varvarivka, reflecting attritional fighting rather than Ukrainian counteroffensives aimed at re-entering the town. Trader assessments of any re-entry timeline therefore hinge on broader Ukrainian force reconstitution, Russian air and drone interdiction campaigns, and resource allocation across multiple fronts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?
Will Ukraine re-enter Huliaipole by...?
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
10%
December 31
30%
$620 Vol.
October 31
$317 Vol.
10%
December 31
$304 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in late December 2025 to early January 2026 after sustained assaults, with independent mapping and Ukrainian officers confirming full or near-full control by February. As of early August 2026, the Institute for the Study of War reports continued Russian offensive operations in the Huliaipole direction without confirmed territorial gains, alongside Ukrainian defensive actions and strikes on Russian logistics and equipment in the rear. Clashes persist near surrounding settlements such as Zaliznychne, Vozdvyzhivka, and Varvarivka, reflecting attritional fighting rather than Ukrainian counteroffensives aimed at re-entering the town. Trader assessments of any re-entry timeline therefore hinge on broader Ukrainian force reconstitution, Russian air and drone interdiction campaigns, and resource allocation across multiple fronts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$620End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in late December 2025 to early January 2026 after sustained assaults, with independent mapping and Ukrainian officers confirming full or near-full control by February. As of early August 2026, the Institute for the Study of War reports continued Russian offensive operations in the Huliaipole direction without confirmed territorial gains, alongside Ukrainian defensive actions and strikes on Russian logistics and equipment in the rear. Clashes persist near surrounding settlements such as Zaliznychne, Vozdvyzhivka, and Varvarivka, reflecting attritional fighting rather than Ukrainian counteroffensives aimed at re-entering the town. Trader assessments of any re-entry timeline therefore hinge on broader Ukrainian force reconstitution, Russian air and drone interdiction campaigns, and resource allocation across multiple fronts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$620End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian forces captured Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in late December 2025 to early January 2026 after sustained assaults, with independent mapping and Ukrainian officers confirming full or near-full control by February. As of early August 2026, the Institute for the Study of War reports continued Russian offensive operations in the Huliaipole direction without confirmed territorial gains, alongside Ukrainian defensive actions and strikes on Russian logistics and equipment in the rear. Clashes persist near surrounding settlements such as Zaliznychne, Vozdvyzhivka, and Varvarivka, reflecting attritional fighting rather than Ukrainian counteroffensives aimed at re-entering the town. Trader assessments of any re-entry timeline therefore hinge on broader Ukrainian force reconstitution, Russian air and drone interdiction campaigns, and resource allocation across multiple fronts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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