The US capture of Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation has left Venezuela in a constitutional transition, with state institutions still formally recognizing him as president while Delcy Rodríguez serves as acting leader under Supreme Tribunal rulings and Article 234 provisions. This framework underpins Maduro’s leading market position, even as Rodríguez consolidates power through oil-sector reforms, military command changes, and amnesty measures that have drawn pragmatic US engagement. Opposition figure María Corina Machado remains sidelined in exile, limiting her near-term prospects despite polling strength among Venezuelans favoring swift elections. Upcoming constitutional timelines for a vote by late 2026 introduce volatility that could elevate Rodríguez or other Chavista figures if the interim arrangement extends, while low probabilities for external actors reflect the domestic focus of the succession process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 63.6%
Delcy Rodríguez 22%
María Corina Machado 9%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón 1.0%
$87,991,991 Vol.
$87,991,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
64%
Delcy Rodríguez
22%
María Corina Machado
9%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Edmundo González
1%
Donald Trump
1%
No Head of State
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 63.6%
Delcy Rodríguez 22%
María Corina Machado 9%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón 1.0%
$87,991,991 Vol.
$87,991,991 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$1,695,848 Vol.
64%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,596,662 Vol.
22%
María Corina Machado
$1,054,042 Vol.
9%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1,670,996 Vol.
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,002,494 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$808,351 Vol.
1%
Donald Trump
$912,722 Vol.
1%
No Head of State
$1,059,671 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,061,725 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$944,846 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,338,939 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$665,560 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$3,560,442 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$8,572,830 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,039,430 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,007,508 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The US capture of Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation has left Venezuela in a constitutional transition, with state institutions still formally recognizing him as president while Delcy Rodríguez serves as acting leader under Supreme Tribunal rulings and Article 234 provisions. This framework underpins Maduro’s leading market position, even as Rodríguez consolidates power through oil-sector reforms, military command changes, and amnesty measures that have drawn pragmatic US engagement. Opposition figure María Corina Machado remains sidelined in exile, limiting her near-term prospects despite polling strength among Venezuelans favoring swift elections. Upcoming constitutional timelines for a vote by late 2026 introduce volatility that could elevate Rodríguez or other Chavista figures if the interim arrangement extends, while low probabilities for external actors reflect the domestic focus of the succession process.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$87,991,991End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
The US capture of Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation has left Venezuela in a constitutional transition, with state institutions still formally recognizing him as president while Delcy Rodríguez serves as acting leader under Supreme Tribunal rulings and Article 234 provisions. This framework underpins Maduro’s leading market position, even as Rodríguez consolidates power through oil-sector reforms, military command changes, and amnesty measures that have drawn pragmatic US engagement. Opposition figure María Corina Machado remains sidelined in exile, limiting her near-term prospects despite polling strength among Venezuelans favoring swift elections. Upcoming constitutional timelines for a vote by late 2026 introduce volatility that could elevate Rodríguez or other Chavista figures if the interim arrangement extends, while low probabilities for external actors reflect the domestic focus of the succession process.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$87,991,991End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The US capture of Nicolás Maduro in a January 2026 military operation has left Venezuela in a constitutional transition, with state institutions still formally recognizing him as president while Delcy Rodríguez serves as acting leader under Supreme Tribunal rulings and Article 234 provisions. This framework underpins Maduro’s leading market position, even as Rodríguez consolidates power through oil-sector reforms, military command changes, and amnesty measures that have drawn pragmatic US engagement. Opposition figure María Corina Machado remains sidelined in exile, limiting her near-term prospects despite polling strength among Venezuelans favoring swift elections. Upcoming constitutional timelines for a vote by late 2026 introduce volatility that could elevate Rodríguez or other Chavista figures if the interim arrangement extends, while low probabilities for external actors reflect the domestic focus of the succession process.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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