**Nicolás Maduro leads Venezuelan leadership markets at end-2026 because Venezuelan institutions continue to treat his presidency as the constitutional baseline despite his January 2026 U.S. capture.** The Supreme Tribunal of Justice classified the event as a temporary absence rather than a vacancy, installing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting head while affirming Maduro’s formal term (sworn January 2025) remains intact. No new presidential election has been scheduled, and opposition demands for an early vote have not produced procedural changes within the resolution window. Rodríguez’s modest share reflects her day-to-day governance role and U.S. diplomatic engagement, including reopened embassy ties and sanctions relief, but traders discount her as permanent leader absent constitutional amendment or electoral confirmation. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González register low probabilities given the absence of a transition mechanism or scheduled vote by December 2026. U.S. statements emphasize stabilization and eventual transition without committing to a timeline that would alter the formal officeholder before year-end. Recent factors reinforcing continuity include the armed forces’ endorsement of the interim arrangement, ongoing U.S. court proceedings against Maduro (trial set for 2027), and domestic priorities such as post-earthquake recovery that have not triggered leadership alteration. Market pricing therefore centers on institutional recognition of Maduro’s ongoing term rather than de facto control or external pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 82.3%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.6%
No Head of State <1%
$95,579,059 Vol.
$95,579,059 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
10%
María Corina Machado
3%
No Head of State
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 82.3%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.6%
No Head of State <1%
$95,579,059 Vol.
$95,579,059 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$2,749,693 Vol.
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,765,643 Vol.
10%
María Corina Machado
$1,443,258 Vol.
3%
No Head of State
$1,512,342 Vol.
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$2,086,822 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,152,028 Vol.
<1%
Edmundo González
$1,213,264 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$803,830 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,974,318 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,632,966 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$1,120,870 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,397,485 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$9,174,549 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,800,654 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$4,113,079 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,638,258 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
**Nicolás Maduro leads Venezuelan leadership markets at end-2026 because Venezuelan institutions continue to treat his presidency as the constitutional baseline despite his January 2026 U.S. capture.** The Supreme Tribunal of Justice classified the event as a temporary absence rather than a vacancy, installing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting head while affirming Maduro’s formal term (sworn January 2025) remains intact. No new presidential election has been scheduled, and opposition demands for an early vote have not produced procedural changes within the resolution window.
Rodríguez’s modest share reflects her day-to-day governance role and U.S. diplomatic engagement, including reopened embassy ties and sanctions relief, but traders discount her as permanent leader absent constitutional amendment or electoral confirmation. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González register low probabilities given the absence of a transition mechanism or scheduled vote by December 2026. U.S. statements emphasize stabilization and eventual transition without committing to a timeline that would alter the formal officeholder before year-end.
Recent factors reinforcing continuity include the armed forces’ endorsement of the interim arrangement, ongoing U.S. court proceedings against Maduro (trial set for 2027), and domestic priorities such as post-earthquake recovery that have not triggered leadership alteration. Market pricing therefore centers on institutional recognition of Maduro’s ongoing term rather than de facto control or external pressure.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$95,579,059End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
**Nicolás Maduro leads Venezuelan leadership markets at end-2026 because Venezuelan institutions continue to treat his presidency as the constitutional baseline despite his January 2026 U.S. capture.** The Supreme Tribunal of Justice classified the event as a temporary absence rather than a vacancy, installing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting head while affirming Maduro’s formal term (sworn January 2025) remains intact. No new presidential election has been scheduled, and opposition demands for an early vote have not produced procedural changes within the resolution window.
Rodríguez’s modest share reflects her day-to-day governance role and U.S. diplomatic engagement, including reopened embassy ties and sanctions relief, but traders discount her as permanent leader absent constitutional amendment or electoral confirmation. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González register low probabilities given the absence of a transition mechanism or scheduled vote by December 2026. U.S. statements emphasize stabilization and eventual transition without committing to a timeline that would alter the formal officeholder before year-end.
Recent factors reinforcing continuity include the armed forces’ endorsement of the interim arrangement, ongoing U.S. court proceedings against Maduro (trial set for 2027), and domestic priorities such as post-earthquake recovery that have not triggered leadership alteration. Market pricing therefore centers on institutional recognition of Maduro’s ongoing term rather than de facto control or external pressure.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$95,579,059End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Nicolás Maduro leads Venezuelan leadership markets at end-2026 because Venezuelan institutions continue to treat his presidency as the constitutional baseline despite his January 2026 U.S. capture.** The Supreme Tribunal of Justice classified the event as a temporary absence rather than a vacancy, installing Vice President Delcy Rodríguez as acting head while affirming Maduro’s formal term (sworn January 2025) remains intact. No new presidential election has been scheduled, and opposition demands for an early vote have not produced procedural changes within the resolution window. Rodríguez’s modest share reflects her day-to-day governance role and U.S. diplomatic engagement, including reopened embassy ties and sanctions relief, but traders discount her as permanent leader absent constitutional amendment or electoral confirmation. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González register low probabilities given the absence of a transition mechanism or scheduled vote by December 2026. U.S. statements emphasize stabilization and eventual transition without committing to a timeline that would alter the formal officeholder before year-end. Recent factors reinforcing continuity include the armed forces’ endorsement of the interim arrangement, ongoing U.S. court proceedings against Maduro (trial set for 2027), and domestic priorities such as post-earthquake recovery that have not triggered leadership alteration. Market pricing therefore centers on institutional recognition of Maduro’s ongoing term rather than de facto control or external pressure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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