**Nicolás Maduro’s long-standing control over Venezuela’s ruling PSUV party, military, and state institutions underpins his commanding 82.3% market price for leadership at the end of 2026, even after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces.** Acting president Delcy Rodríguez, at 9.5%, holds interim power following the U.S. operation and has pursued cooperation on sanctions relief and economic stabilization, yet traders appear to view her position as transitional rather than permanent. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain in exile with minimal near-term prospects for assuming office. U.S. policy has emphasized a sequenced approach of stabilization and recovery before any democratic transition or elections, while recent events such as June 2026 earthquakes have reinforced focus on regime continuity and humanitarian management over rapid leadership change. These dynamics, combined with the regime’s institutional resilience and delayed electoral timelines, shape the current trader consensus reflected in the probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 82.3%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.6%
No Head of State <1%
$95,605,561 Vol.
$95,605,561 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
10%
María Corina Machado
3%
No Head of State
1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 82.3%
Delcy Rodríguez 10%
María Corina Machado 2.6%
No Head of State <1%
$95,605,561 Vol.
$95,605,561 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$2,749,747 Vol.
82%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,765,663 Vol.
10%
María Corina Machado
$1,443,258 Vol.
3%
No Head of State
$1,512,342 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$1,213,300 Vol.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$2,088,332 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,163,233 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$816,470 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,974,358 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,633,074 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$1,121,486 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,397,567 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$9,174,672 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,800,723 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$4,113,079 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,638,258 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
**Nicolás Maduro’s long-standing control over Venezuela’s ruling PSUV party, military, and state institutions underpins his commanding 82.3% market price for leadership at the end of 2026, even after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces.** Acting president Delcy Rodríguez, at 9.5%, holds interim power following the U.S. operation and has pursued cooperation on sanctions relief and economic stabilization, yet traders appear to view her position as transitional rather than permanent. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain in exile with minimal near-term prospects for assuming office. U.S. policy has emphasized a sequenced approach of stabilization and recovery before any democratic transition or elections, while recent events such as June 2026 earthquakes have reinforced focus on regime continuity and humanitarian management over rapid leadership change. These dynamics, combined with the regime’s institutional resilience and delayed electoral timelines, shape the current trader consensus reflected in the probabilities.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$95,605,561End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
**Nicolás Maduro’s long-standing control over Venezuela’s ruling PSUV party, military, and state institutions underpins his commanding 82.3% market price for leadership at the end of 2026, even after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces.** Acting president Delcy Rodríguez, at 9.5%, holds interim power following the U.S. operation and has pursued cooperation on sanctions relief and economic stabilization, yet traders appear to view her position as transitional rather than permanent. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain in exile with minimal near-term prospects for assuming office. U.S. policy has emphasized a sequenced approach of stabilization and recovery before any democratic transition or elections, while recent events such as June 2026 earthquakes have reinforced focus on regime continuity and humanitarian management over rapid leadership change. These dynamics, combined with the regime’s institutional resilience and delayed electoral timelines, shape the current trader consensus reflected in the probabilities.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$95,605,561End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Nicolás Maduro’s long-standing control over Venezuela’s ruling PSUV party, military, and state institutions underpins his commanding 82.3% market price for leadership at the end of 2026, even after his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces.** Acting president Delcy Rodríguez, at 9.5%, holds interim power following the U.S. operation and has pursued cooperation on sanctions relief and economic stabilization, yet traders appear to view her position as transitional rather than permanent. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain in exile with minimal near-term prospects for assuming office. U.S. policy has emphasized a sequenced approach of stabilization and recovery before any democratic transition or elections, while recent events such as June 2026 earthquakes have reinforced focus on regime continuity and humanitarian management over rapid leadership change. These dynamics, combined with the regime’s institutional resilience and delayed electoral timelines, shape the current trader consensus reflected in the probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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