The US capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 and his ongoing detention on federal charges shifted executive authority to acting President Delcy Rodríguez, whose interim government maintains control through the National Assembly and military backing. US-backed talks with opposition factions have produced limited institutional steps, such as judicial review commissions, but major reforms to the Supreme Court and electoral council remain incomplete, pushing any presidential vote into 2027 or later. Delcy Rodríguez’s September meetings with US officials, including an oil agreement and UN General Assembly pledges for eventual elections without a timeline, underscore external leverage favoring managed continuity within the existing power structure. Opposition figures including María Corina Machado and Edmundo González face persistent barriers to participation or return. These dynamics underpin trader consensus around sustained influence for Maduro-aligned or Rodríguez-led outcomes through the end of 2026.