The U.S. recognition of Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s interim leader after Maduro’s January 2026 removal, combined with ongoing diplomatic normalization and joint focus on stabilization, oil-sector deals, and phased negotiations involving other opposition figures, underpins the near-certain trader view that Washington will not designate María Corina Machado as the country’s leader by year-end. The Trump administration has repeatedly discouraged Machado’s immediate return, prioritized gradual transition over rapid opposition handover, and channeled talks through established channels rather than her leadership. Remaining uncertainty stems from possible late policy reversals, breakthrough election timelines, or shifts in negotiating leverage before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
3% chance
$179,676 Vol.
$179,676 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$179,676 Vol.
$179,676 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. recognition of Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s interim leader after Maduro’s January 2026 removal, combined with ongoing diplomatic normalization and joint focus on stabilization, oil-sector deals, and phased negotiations involving other opposition figures, underpins the near-certain trader view that Washington will not designate María Corina Machado as the country’s leader by year-end. The Trump administration has repeatedly discouraged Machado’s immediate return, prioritized gradual transition over rapid opposition handover, and channeled talks through established channels rather than her leadership. Remaining uncertainty stems from possible late policy reversals, breakthrough election timelines, or shifts in negotiating leverage before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Volume
$179,676End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The U.S. recognition of Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s interim leader after Maduro’s January 2026 removal, combined with ongoing diplomatic normalization and joint focus on stabilization, oil-sector deals, and phased negotiations involving other opposition figures, underpins the near-certain trader view that Washington will not designate María Corina Machado as the country’s leader by year-end. The Trump administration has repeatedly discouraged Machado’s immediate return, prioritized gradual transition over rapid opposition handover, and channeled talks through established channels rather than her leadership. Remaining uncertainty stems from possible late policy reversals, breakthrough election timelines, or shifts in negotiating leverage before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$179,676End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. recognition of Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s interim leader after Maduro’s January 2026 removal, combined with ongoing diplomatic normalization and joint focus on stabilization, oil-sector deals, and phased negotiations involving other opposition figures, underpins the near-certain trader view that Washington will not designate María Corina Machado as the country’s leader by year-end. The Trump administration has repeatedly discouraged Machado’s immediate return, prioritized gradual transition over rapid opposition handover, and channeled talks through established channels rather than her leadership. Remaining uncertainty stems from possible late policy reversals, breakthrough election timelines, or shifts in negotiating leverage before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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