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Politics predictions & odds

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Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

100%

Kevin Warsh

$64M Vol.

$5M today

$12M Liq.

112

Ends in 6 months

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

63%

December 31

$112M Vol.

$2M today

$2M Liq.

2,236

Ends in 8 months

Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets May 8 - May 15, 2026?

49%

100-119

$7M Vol.

$2M today

$1M Liq.

Ends in 2 days

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Presidential Election Winner 2028

19%

JD Vance

$579M Vol.

$2M today

$30M Liq.

907

Ends in over 2 years

Starmer out by...?
Politics·UK

Starmer out by...?

78%

December 31

$23M Vol.

$2M today

$424K Liq.

1,444

Elon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?

21%

120-139

$4M Vol.

$2M today

$797K Liq.

Ends in 6 days

Brazil Presidential Election

Brazil Presidential Election

44%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$71M Vol.

$1M today

$4M Liq.

6,356

Ends in 5 months

Fed Decision in June?

Fed Decision in June?

98%

No change

$26M Vol.

$1M today

$3M Liq.

1

Ends in about 1 month

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

24%

Gavin Newsom

$1B Vol.

$1M today

$61M Liq.

730

Ends in over 2 years

Next French Presidential Election

Next French Presidential Election

24%

Jordan Bardella

$69M Vol.

$977K today

$6M Liq.

499

Ends in 12 months

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

37%

J.D. Vance

$616M Vol.

$963K today

$30M Liq.

389

Ends in over 2 years

Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?
Politics·Trump

Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?

1%

$910K Vol.

$868K today

$239K Liq.

53

Ends in 1 day

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

85%

Chong Won-oh

$38M Vol.

$795K today

$5M Liq.

96

Ends in 20 days

Epstein suicide note released by...?
Politics·Trump

Epstein suicide note released by...?

10%

May 31

$14M Vol.

$701K today

$7M Liq.

503

Ends in 17 days

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?
Politics·Trump

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?

2%

$636K Vol.

$595K today

$21.7K Liq.

Ends in 17 days

Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

3%

$616K Vol.

$580K today

$13.8K Liq.

Ends in about 2 months

California Governor Election Winner

California Governor Election Winner

53%

Xavier Becerra

$21M Vol.

$413K today

$3M Liq.

57

Ends in 6 months

Elon Musk # tweets May 15 - May 22, 2026?

Elon Musk # tweets May 15 - May 22, 2026?

19%

120-139

$504K Vol.

$395K today

$596K Liq.

Ends in 9 days

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

7%

$23M Vol.

$335K today

$980K Liq.

73

Ends in 8 months

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

60%

June 30

$36M Vol.

$318K today

$345K Liq.

6

Frequently Asked Questions

Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge by trading on things related to breaking news, politics, sports, elections, crypto, finance, tech, culture, including topics like Politics.

Polymarket currently hosts 20 active markets for Politics that lets you track or trade on predictions like “Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?”. Whether you are tracking widely debated events or niche outcomes, the platform aggregates real-time odds based on over $2.8B in trading volume, providing a comprehensive view of fan and investor sentiment.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes. Prices reflect crowd-sourced odds and probabilities. For example, if yes is at 30 cents, that’s a 30% chance. Markets resolve based on official results. For multi-outcome events, like “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028,” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

As of today, the most active market is “Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028,” where the crowd is currently assigning a 24% chance to Gavin Newsom. These odds update in real-time as new information emerges and users trade, offering a dynamic snapshot of what the market believes will happen compared to traditional bookmaker odds.

It cuts through the noise. Unlike polls or punditry, Polymarket shows you real-time odds on Politics predictions backed by financial conviction that are often faster and more accurate than experts or surveys. You get an unbiased view of what thousands of traders think will actually happen, often more accurate than polls. Plus, you can trade shares and potentially profit if your predictions are spot on.