Marine Le Pen maintains the strongest trader consensus in this market at 42.6 percent, reflecting her sustained first-round polling lead of 33–36 percent in late-September surveys and the Rassemblement National’s recent formation of its first Senate parliamentary group. Recent Toluna Harris Interactive data show her advancing comfortably ahead of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (17–18 percent) and Édouard Philippe (13–16 percent), with centrists divided between Philippe and Gabriel Attal. This fragmentation, combined with economic pressures and polarization, positions Le Pen for a likely runoff matchup against Mélenchon, where head-to-head polling gives her a decisive edge. Philippe trails at 18.5 percent amid these dynamics, while Mélenchon holds 14.5 percent on strong youth support, though both face structural barriers in a fragmented field ahead of the April 2027 vote.