Renaissance party moves toward officially designating Gabriel Attal as its "natural candidate" for the 2027 presidential election

Gabriel Attal rises to 4%1%

The party's internal endorsement process increased his legitimacy, causing a slight

Mélenchon receives 150 000 citizen signatures within 24 hours The Figaro report that more than 150 000 supporters signed his candidacy petition the day after his announcement

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 9%3%

Mélenchon receives 150 000 citizen signatures within 24 hours The Figaro report that more than 150 000 supporters signed his candidacy petition the day after his announcement boosted his visibility and pushed his.

Mélenchon officially announces his fourth run for the 2027 presidency – Reuters, Politico and The Guardian reported his May 3 2026 declaration, which revived his campaign momentum

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%

Mélenchon officially announces his fourth run for the 2027 presidency – Reuters, Politico and The Guardian reported his May 3 2026 declaration, which revived his campaign momentum and pushed the market

Jean-Luc Mélenchon officially announces his fourth presidential run on TF1

Jean-Luc Mélenchon jumps to 12%5%

Mélenchon’s formal candidacy announcement on May 3, 2026, marked a key campaign milestone, energizing his base and increasing market confidence in his chances despite left-wing divisions.

Reports highlight Le Pen’s party exploring legal and political maneuvers to circumvent her ban, but uncertainty remains high, and Jordan Bardella’s rising popularity overshadows

Marine Le Pen dips to 6%2%

Reports highlight Le Pen’s party exploring legal and political maneuvers to circumvent her ban, but uncertainty remains high, and Jordan Bardella’s rising popularity overshadows her

Post‑municipal‑election analysis (Reuters) highlights that centrist parties gained unexpectedly, suggesting a possible “republican front” that could block RN candidates, pushing

Post‑municipal‑election analysis (Reuters) highlights that centrist parties gained unexpectedly, suggesting a possible “republican front” that could block RN candidates, pushing her odds down to a new low (no change, but confirms the low level).

Lisnard appears on France 2’s “20 heures” to confirm an independent presidential run – The televised announcement of his independent candidacy sparked a brief rally, lifting his

David Lisnard rises to 5%3%

Lisnard appears on France 2’s “20 heures” to confirm an independent presidential run – The televised announcement of his independent candidacy sparked a brief rally, lifting his odds back into the mid‑single digits.

LR party members vote overwhelmingly (73.8%) to designate Retailleau as the official candidate without a primary, solidifying his candidacy but also exposing internal party

Bruno Retailleau rises to 4%1%

LR party members vote overwhelmingly (73.8%) to designate Retailleau as the official candidate without a primary, solidifying his candidacy but also exposing internal party tensions and skepticism about his electability

Republicans officially endorse Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate – The party’s choice of Retailleau over an open primary further diminished Lisnard’s chances,

David Lisnard dips to 2%2%

Republicans officially endorse Bruno Retailleau as their presidential candidate – The party’s choice of Retailleau over an open primary further diminished Lisnard’s chances, pushing his odds lower.

Lisnard’s poll numbers dip after internal LR backlash A week after his departure, a poll released by a right‑wing think‑tank showed his support slipping, prompting a quick

David Lisnard dips to 5%3%

Lisnard’s poll numbers dip after internal LR backlash A week after his departure, a poll released by a right‑wing think‑tank showed his support slipping, prompting a quick correction in the market

Lisnard’s candidacy gains momentum as he launches “Nouvelle Énergie” campaign Following the official launch of his movement and a televised interview, analysts noted a surge in

David Lisnard rises to 8%2%

Lisnard’s candidacy gains momentum as he launches “Nouvelle Énergie” campaign Following the official launch of his movement and a televised interview, analysts noted a surge in his visibility, pushing the market

Bruno Retailleau receives official backing from LR members as their presidential candidate with 73.8% support, but polling shows him under 10% voter intention, indicating limited

Bruno Retailleau rises to 6%2%

Bruno Retailleau receives official backing from LR members as their presidential candidate with 73.8% support, but polling shows him under 10% voter intention, indicating limited broader appeal despite party endorsement

Lisnard officially announces his presidential bid and formally leaves LR He delivered his resignation letter to party leader Bruno Retailleau and declared his independent run, a

David Lisnard rises to 6%2%

Lisnard officially announces his presidential bid and formally leaves LR He delivered his resignation letter to party leader Bruno Retailleau and declared his independent run, a move reported by RTL and 20 minutes, which lifted his market odds after a period of stagnation.

David Lisnard officially resigns from Les Républicains, delivering his resignation letter to party leader Bruno Retailleau, solidifying his split from the party

David Lisnard dips to 2%1%

This formal departure further diminished his standing within the traditional right-wing base.

David Lisnard announces on BFMTV his intention to quit Les Républicains, criticizing the party’s presidential candidate selection process as lacking coherence and openness

David Lisnard dips to 3%3%

His public break with LR signaled weakening support and caused a

Municipal elections see the RN win numerous town run‑offs but lose key cities (Marseille, Toulon, Nîmes);

the mixed result lifts Le Pen’s standing ahead of the April 2026 poll

Lisnard quits Les Républicains, alleging a “rigged” candidacy process – His break with the party removed the institutional backing he needed, causing a sharp drop in his market

David Lisnard drops to 4%8%

Lisnard quits Les Républicains, alleging a “rigged” candidacy process – His break with the party removed the institutional backing he needed, causing a sharp drop in his market probability.

Mélenchon gains momentum from municipal elections but faces criticism over far-right activist’s death

Jean-Luc Mélenchon dips to 10%1%

Following the March 2026 municipal elections, Mélenchon’s party showed strength, boosting his profile as a presidential contender. However, controversy arose after the killing of a far-right activist linked to LFI circles, causing political backlash and limiting.

Macron gains key centrist ally François Bayrou, strengthening his campaign against Le Pen;

Marine Le Pen dips to 7%3%

simultaneously, an aide to Le Pen is charged in a fake jobs scandal, damaging her campaign image

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon fuels controversy The February 2026 killing, linked by investigators to members of the far‑left group Jeune Garde associated

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 6%6%

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque in Lyon fuels controversy The February 2026 killing, linked by investigators to members of the far‑left group Jeune Garde associated with LFI figures, sparked a national debate and hurt Mélenchon’s standing, contributing to the slide from 12 % to 6 % by Apr 5.

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque links far‑left activists to Mélenchon’s movement, hurting his standing – The February 2026 controversy over the Lyon clash, with alleged

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon dips to 10%1%

Fatal beating of neo‑Nazi Quentin Deranque links far‑left activists to Mélenchon’s movement, hurting his standing – The February 2026 controversy over the Lyon clash, with alleged ties to Mélenchon‑affiliated groups, caused a modest drop in his market probability.

Retailleau publicly declares his presidential candidacy with a serious campaign launch, aiming to create momentum and a surge in polls;

Bruno Retailleau jumps to 10%6%

this announcement briefly boosted market confidence

Reuters poll‑of‑polls reports the far‑right at “solid shot at power” and Le Pen’s name among the top two RN candidates, pushing her back into the top‑tier of presidential

Marine Le Pen rises to 11%3%

Reuters poll‑of‑polls reports the far‑right at “solid shot at power” and Le Pen’s name among the top two RN candidates, pushing her back into the top‑tier of presidential contenders

Philippe’s campaign announces the creation of a “direction collégiale” – a senior team including Christophe Béchu, Marie Guévenoux and Gilles Boyer – signalling organisational

Édouard Philippe rises to 16%3%

Philippe’s campaign announces the creation of a “direction collégiale” – a senior team including Christophe Béchu, Marie Guévenoux and Gilles Boyer – signalling organisational strength and lifting his

Lisnard confirms he will run for the 2027 presidency At a meeting in Paris’s Maison de la Mutualité, he told supporters he would stand in the 2027 election and called for an open

David Lisnard jumps to 8%6%

Lisnard confirms he will run for the 2027 presidency At a meeting in Paris’s Maison de la Mutualité, he told supporters he would stand in the 2027 election and called for an open primary, reviving media attention on his candidacy.

David Lisnard officially announces his presidential run at a meeting in Paris, advocating for an open primary and outlining his policy priorities including security and economic reform

David Lisnard rises to 6%3%

This formal declaration briefly boosted market confidence in his candidacy.

Polls show Bardella maintaining strong but fluctuating support, with some reports indicating a narrow second-round loss to Édouard Philippe, creating uncertainty about his

Jordan Bardella jumps to 31%7%

Polls show Bardella maintaining strong but fluctuating support, with some reports indicating a narrow second-round loss to Édouard Philippe, creating uncertainty about his ultimate electability

Marine Le Pen’s appeal trial opens in Paris over embezzlement conviction, with her 2027 presidential bid at stake;

Marine Le Pen jumps to 14%7%

trial scheduled to last five weeks with verdict expected before summer

Mélenchon launches “Nouvelle France” identity campaign In a televised rally in Aubervilliers, he unveiled a new “identity‑focused” platform aimed at counter‑ing the far‑right,

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 12%3%

Mélenchon launches “Nouvelle France” identity campaign In a televised rally in Aubervilliers, he unveiled a new “identity‑focused” platform aimed at counter‑ing the far‑right, which revived enthusiasm among left‑wing voters and lifted his.

Éric Ciotti wins the internal leadership vote for The Republicans, defeating Retailleau;

this internal party defeat likely weakened Retailleau’s immediate prospects and contributed to early

Attal's group writes to 60,000 business leaders highlighting budgetary successes, aiming to consolidate support among economic stakeholders

Gabriel Attal rises to 9%2%

This outreach may have improved his standing with pro-business constituencies.

Lisnard quits Les Républicains, denouncing a “rigged” primary selection The Cannes mayor announced on BFMTV that he was leaving the party because the LR bureau had proposed a

David Lisnard drops to 5%12%

Lisnard quits Les Républicains, denouncing a “rigged” primary selection The Cannes mayor announced on BFMTV that he was leaving the party because the LR bureau had proposed a “truqué” (rigged) primary process, dramatically reducing his perceived chances within the traditional right‑wing bloc.

Gabriel Attal gives a significant interview to JDD emphasizing the need for a "true model break" in 2027 and defends pension reform proposals

Gabriel Attal jumps to 11%5%

This assertive stance briefly boosted his perceived viability as a reformist candidate.

Gabriel Attal publicly advocates for a partially capitalized pension system, sparking debate with opponents like Sandrine Rousseau

Gabriel Attal dips to 6%4%

His push for pension reform introduced controversy, likely dampening support among some voters.

David Lisnard confirms presidential candidacy at the 107th Association of Mayors of France congress, emphasizing his desire for a broad right-wing primary including far-right candidates

David Lisnard drops to 4%13%

Despite announcing his candidacy, Lisnard was acknowledged as the least known candidate, limiting enthusiasm and causing an early

Bruno Retailleau officially announces his candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election, emphasizing a new path focused on order, prosperity, and French pride;

Bruno Retailleau plunges to 5%23%

this formal declaration marked the start of his campaign and clarified his intentions to the market

Gabriel Attal travels to South Africa for the Selectour Congress, temporarily stepping back from domestic political debates

Gabriel Attal drops to 10%6%

This trip signaled a brief political absence, possibly reducing his visibility and market confidence.

Following the party launch, major French newspapers report that de Villepin’s “Humanist France” has failed to register any candidates for the upcoming legislative elections,

Dominique de Villepin dips to 5%4%

Following the party launch, major French newspapers report that de Villepin’s “Humanist France” has failed to register any candidates for the upcoming legislative elections, dampening expectations of a presidential bid

Mélenchon’s pro-Russia comments and criticism of Ukrainian President Zelensky spark backlash

Jean-Luc Mélenchon drops to 9%9%

In August 2025, Mélenchon called Zelensky “illegitimate” and defended Putin, drawing widespread condemnation from left-wing parties and the public, leading to a sharp drop in his market support in mid-November 2025.

Mélenchon’s poll share drops to historic lows after a series‑of anti‑establishment remarks – Polls released at the end of November 2025 showed Mélenchon falling to single‑digit

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon drops to 9%9%

Mélenchon’s poll share drops to historic lows after a series‑of anti‑establishment remarks – Polls released at the end of November 2025 showed Mélenchon falling to single‑digit support, the lowest of his recent campaigns, prompting a sharp sell‑off on the market.

Mélenchon sparks outrage by calling Ukrainian President Zelensky “illegitimate” and defending Putin, fueling criticism from left‑wing parties – His August 2025 remarks on the

Jean‑Luc Mélenchon rises to 10%1%

Mélenchon sparks outrage by calling Ukrainian President Zelensky “illegitimate” and defending Putin, fueling criticism from left‑wing parties – His August 2025 remarks on the Ukraine war drew condemnation from the Socialist Party and Green allies, temporarily halting the

Lisnard signals he will run for the 2027 presidency if the Republicans hold an open primary – The mayor of Cannes publicly said he would enter the race only under a

David Lisnard drops to 12%5%

Lisnard signals he will run for the 2027 presidency if the Republicans hold an open primary – The mayor of Cannes publicly said he would enter the race only under a single‑candidate primary, raising his profile and prompting an early rise in market odds.