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Elections·US Election

Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?

icon for Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?
Elections·US Election

Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?

Mary Peltola 91.9%

Sen. Dan S. Sullivan 8.0%

David Leslie <1%

Shirley Saucerman <1%

Polymarket

$45,677 Vol.

Mary Peltola 91.9%

Sen. Dan S. Sullivan 8.0%

David Leslie <1%

Shirley Saucerman <1%

Polymarket

$45,677 Vol.

icon for Mary Peltola

Mary Peltola

$18,283 Vol.

92%

icon for Sen. Dan S. Sullivan

Sen. Dan S. Sullivan

$11,018 Vol.

8%

icon for David Leslie

David Leslie

$3,015 Vol.

<1%

Shirley Saucerman

$2,435 Vol.

<1%

icon for Richard Grayson

Richard Grayson

$1,045 Vol.

<1%

Richard Benedict Mayers

$947 Vol.

<1%

Earl D. "Skip" Southworth

$969 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dustin Darden

Dustin Darden

$705 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carol Hafner

Carol Hafner

$752 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gerald L. Heikes

Gerald L. Heikes

$502 Vol.

<1%

icon for Dan J. Sullivan

Dan J. Sullivan

$1,493 Vol.

<1%

Fred C. Grauberger

$1,713 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sid Hill

Sid Hill

$550 Vol.

<1%

icon for Scott Kohlhaas

Scott Kohlhaas

$539 Vol.

<1%

Heather McElwain

$1,077 Vol.

<1%

icon for Reece Roberts

Reece Roberts

$634 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections. Mary Peltola holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the top spot in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary because she consolidated Democratic support statewide after entering the Senate race in January 2026, outraised incumbent Dan Sullivan by wide margins in recent filings, and maintained narrow but consistent leads in general-election polling averages. The state’s ranked-choice voting system and the crowded field of minor candidates further concentrate her vote share relative to fragmented Republican or independent options. Sullivan remains the only other candidate with meaningful name recognition and resources, yet his lower fundraising and the absence of recent polling surges have kept his implied probability low. Late developments such as campaign staff changes or turnout surprises among specific voting blocs could still alter final-round ordering, though current evidence points to limited scope for such shifts.

This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
Volume
$45,677
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections. Mary Peltola holds a commanding lead in trader pricing for the top spot in Alaska’s August 18 nonpartisan top-four primary because she consolidated Democratic support statewide after entering the Senate race in January 2026, outraised incumbent Dan Sullivan by wide margins in recent filings, and maintained narrow but consistent leads in general-election polling averages. The state’s ranked-choice voting system and the crowded field of minor candidates further concentrate her vote share relative to fragmented Republican or independent options. Sullivan remains the only other candidate with meaningful name recognition and resources, yet his lower fundraising and the absence of recent polling surges have kept his implied probability low. Late developments such as campaign staff changes or turnout surprises among specific voting blocs could still alter final-round ordering, though current evidence points to limited scope for such shifts.

This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.
Volume
$45,677
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of most votes in the final reported round of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate primary election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for August 18, 2026. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Senator from Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the Division of Elections.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mary Peltola" at 92%, followed by "Sen. Dan S. Sullivan" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 92¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?" has generated $45.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?" is "Mary Peltola" at 92%, meaning the market assigns a 92% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sen. Dan S. Sullivan" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vote winner in Alaska Senate primary final round?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.