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Politics·Primaries

FL-14 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-14 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

FL-14 Republican Primary Winner

Kevin Steele 75%

John Peters 31%

Ergin "Batman" Tek 31%

Michael Marcel 30%

Polymarket
NEW

Kevin Steele 75%

John Peters 31%

Ergin "Batman" Tek 31%

Michael Marcel 30%

Polymarket
NEW

Kevin Steele

$95 Vol.

70%

John Peters

$30 Vol.

31%

Ergin "Batman" Tek

$30 Vol.

31%

Michael Marcel

$33 Vol.

30%

Gavriel Soriano

$64 Vol.

30%

Bea Valenti

$69 Vol.

28%

Robert "Rocky" Rochford

$40 Vol.

23%

Mike Beltran

$112 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.A crowded eight-candidate Republican primary for Florida’s 14th congressional district, set for August 18, 2026, has produced fragmented support with no dominant frontrunner. Recent entries by state Rep. Kevin Steele and former state Rep. Mike Beltran, combined with candidates including Bea Valenti, Michael Marcel, John Peters, Robert “Rocky” Rochford, Gavriel Soriano, and Ergin “Batman” Tek, have kept vote shares dispersed. A mid-July St. Pete Polls survey showed Beltran leading the primary field at 30% and Steele at 18%, while the redrawn district—now more Republican-leaning after decades under Democrat Kathy Castor—adds general-election stakes without clarifying the GOP nominee. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with multiple contenders clustered near even odds and limited separation driven by low name recognition and minimal late-campaign consolidation.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$474
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.A crowded eight-candidate Republican primary for Florida’s 14th congressional district, set for August 18, 2026, has produced fragmented support with no dominant frontrunner. Recent entries by state Rep. Kevin Steele and former state Rep. Mike Beltran, combined with candidates including Bea Valenti, Michael Marcel, John Peters, Robert “Rocky” Rochford, Gavriel Soriano, and Ergin “Batman” Tek, have kept vote shares dispersed. A mid-July St. Pete Polls survey showed Beltran leading the primary field at 30% and Steele at 18%, while the redrawn district—now more Republican-leaning after decades under Democrat Kathy Castor—adds general-election stakes without clarifying the GOP nominee. Trader pricing reflects this uncertainty, with multiple contenders clustered near even odds and limited separation driven by low name recognition and minimal late-campaign consolidation.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$474
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 23, 2026, 3:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-14 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Steele" at 70%, followed by "John Peters" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 70¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"FL-14 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "FL-14 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-14 Republican Primary Winner" is "Kevin Steele" at 70%, meaning the market assigns a 70% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Peters" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-14 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.