United Russia’s position in the 2026 State Duma election rests on its established control of state institutions, media access, and regional administrations, reinforced by the exclusion of non-systemic opposition parties such as Yabloko. Preliminary Central Election Commission results after three days of voting show the party securing approximately 57–58 percent of the party-list vote, aligning with historical patterns of incumbency advantage and elevated turnout near 56–57 percent. Single-mandate district results further strengthen its projected constitutional majority. Trader consensus in the 55–60 percent range reflects these structural factors and the absence of major last-minute disruptions during the count. Shifts would require substantial revisions to official tallies or unprecedented legal challenges, both of which remain low-probability outcomes given the current trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55-60% 96.6%
60%+ 2.3%
50-55% 1.7%
45-50% <1%
$40,440 Vol.
$40,440 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
<40%
<1%
40-45%
<1%
45-50%
<1%
50-55%
2%
55-60%
97%
60%+
2%
55-60% 96.6%
60%+ 2.3%
50-55% 1.7%
45-50% <1%
$40,440 Vol.
$40,440 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
<40%
$146 Vol.
<1%
40-45%
$578 Vol.
<1%
45-50%
$5,594 Vol.
<1%
50-55%
$8,679 Vol.
2%
55-60%
$9,284 Vol.
97%
60%+
$16,160 Vol.
2%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia’s position in the 2026 State Duma election rests on its established control of state institutions, media access, and regional administrations, reinforced by the exclusion of non-systemic opposition parties such as Yabloko. Preliminary Central Election Commission results after three days of voting show the party securing approximately 57–58 percent of the party-list vote, aligning with historical patterns of incumbency advantage and elevated turnout near 56–57 percent. Single-mandate district results further strengthen its projected constitutional majority. Trader consensus in the 55–60 percent range reflects these structural factors and the absence of major last-minute disruptions during the count. Shifts would require substantial revisions to official tallies or unprecedented legal challenges, both of which remain low-probability outcomes given the current trajectory.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Volume
$40,440End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.United Russia’s position in the 2026 State Duma election rests on its established control of state institutions, media access, and regional administrations, reinforced by the exclusion of non-systemic opposition parties such as Yabloko. Preliminary Central Election Commission results after three days of voting show the party securing approximately 57–58 percent of the party-list vote, aligning with historical patterns of incumbency advantage and elevated turnout near 56–57 percent. Single-mandate district results further strengthen its projected constitutional majority. Trader consensus in the 55–60 percent range reflects these structural factors and the absence of major last-minute disruptions during the count. Shifts would require substantial revisions to official tallies or unprecedented legal challenges, both of which remain low-probability outcomes given the current trajectory.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the federal party-list vote won by United Russia (ER) in the 2026 Russian State Duma election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Russia (ER) on the federal party-list ballot divided by the total number of valid votes cast on the federal party-list ballot. Votes cast in single-member district contests will not be counted.
Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$40,440End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...United Russia’s position in the 2026 State Duma election rests on its established control of state institutions, media access, and regional administrations, reinforced by the exclusion of non-systemic opposition parties such as Yabloko. Preliminary Central Election Commission results after three days of voting show the party securing approximately 57–58 percent of the party-list vote, aligning with historical patterns of incumbency advantage and elevated turnout near 56–57 percent. Single-mandate district results further strengthen its projected constitutional majority. Trader consensus in the 55–60 percent range reflects these structural factors and the absence of major last-minute disruptions during the count. Shifts would require substantial revisions to official tallies or unprecedented legal challenges, both of which remain low-probability outcomes given the current trajectory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions