**A Just Russia (SR) enters the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections with recent polling placing its party-list support near the 5% proportional threshold.** State-affiliated surveys from FOM and VCIOM in early September showed the party at 4–7%, while independent polling such as ExtremeScan placed it at 4.0% overall or 5.9% among decided voters, with some renormalized models dipping below or clearing 5% depending on assumptions about undecided voters and Yabloko’s exclusion. The party has campaigned on veteran support and patriotic themes under leader Sergey Mironov, who heads its federal list. Analysts note that its marginal position depends heavily on whether the Presidential Administration opts to preserve the existing five-party Duma configuration through administrative measures, consistent with patterns in prior cycles. This uncertainty around both raw vote shares and potential adjustments underpins the current trader-implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated64% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
64% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**A Just Russia (SR) enters the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections with recent polling placing its party-list support near the 5% proportional threshold.** State-affiliated surveys from FOM and VCIOM in early September showed the party at 4–7%, while independent polling such as ExtremeScan placed it at 4.0% overall or 5.9% among decided voters, with some renormalized models dipping below or clearing 5% depending on assumptions about undecided voters and Yabloko’s exclusion. The party has campaigned on veteran support and patriotic themes under leader Sergey Mironov, who heads its federal list. Analysts note that its marginal position depends heavily on whether the Presidential Administration opts to preserve the existing five-party Duma configuration through administrative measures, consistent with patterns in prior cycles. This uncertainty around both raw vote shares and potential adjustments underpins the current trader-implied probability.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
Volume
$1,719End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.**A Just Russia (SR) enters the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections with recent polling placing its party-list support near the 5% proportional threshold.** State-affiliated surveys from FOM and VCIOM in early September showed the party at 4–7%, while independent polling such as ExtremeScan placed it at 4.0% overall or 5.9% among decided voters, with some renormalized models dipping below or clearing 5% depending on assumptions about undecided voters and Yabloko’s exclusion. The party has campaigned on veteran support and patriotic themes under leader Sergey Mironov, who heads its federal list. Analysts note that its marginal position depends heavily on whether the Presidential Administration opts to preserve the existing five-party Duma configuration through administrative measures, consistent with patterns in prior cycles. This uncertainty around both raw vote shares and potential adjustments underpins the current trader-implied probability.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater than or equal to the threshold to gain seats in the State Duma from the proportional representation system in the 2026 Russian parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve solely according to the percentage of valid votes received by the A Just Russia (SR) party list. Whether A Just Russia (SR) is awarded any seats in the State Duma will have no bearing on resolution.
The applicable threshold will be the threshold in effect at the time of the specified election. As of the creation of this market, that threshold is 5% of valid votes.
If the A Just Russia (SR) party list is not present on the nationwide ballot, or is otherwise excluded from the results of the specified election, this market will resolve to "No".
If the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$1,719End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 5:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**A Just Russia (SR) enters the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections with recent polling placing its party-list support near the 5% proportional threshold.** State-affiliated surveys from FOM and VCIOM in early September showed the party at 4–7%, while independent polling such as ExtremeScan placed it at 4.0% overall or 5.9% among decided voters, with some renormalized models dipping below or clearing 5% depending on assumptions about undecided voters and Yabloko’s exclusion. The party has campaigned on veteran support and patriotic themes under leader Sergey Mironov, who heads its federal list. Analysts note that its marginal position depends heavily on whether the Presidential Administration opts to preserve the existing five-party Duma configuration through administrative measures, consistent with patterns in prior cycles. This uncertainty around both raw vote shares and potential adjustments underpins the current trader-implied probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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