Recent polling from mid-September 2026 places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's first-round support in the high 30s to low 40s across major surveys, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing by 5–10 points as other right-leaning candidates such as Augusto Cury draw fragments of the opposition. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters and blank/null ballots often exceeding 10%, sustains tight ranges in trader assessments of Lula's share ahead of the October 4 first round. Campaign dynamics including free electoral broadcasts, debates, and lingering effects from bank-fraud inquiries tied to Bolsonaro have produced modest swings without decisive separation. Institutional tensions around the Supreme Court and turnout among core PT and PL bases remain key variables that could shift final valid-vote percentages within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated44%+ 42%
41-44% 39%
38-41% 15%
<35% 4.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
5%
35-38%
5%
38-41%
15%
41-44%
39%
44%+
42%
44%+ 42%
41-44% 39%
38-41% 15%
<35% 4.9%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
<35%
$353 Vol.
5%
35-38%
$348 Vol.
5%
38-41%
$727 Vol.
15%
41-44%
$1,016 Vol.
39%
44%+
$1,231 Vol.
42%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September 2026 places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's first-round support in the high 30s to low 40s across major surveys, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing by 5–10 points as other right-leaning candidates such as Augusto Cury draw fragments of the opposition. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters and blank/null ballots often exceeding 10%, sustains tight ranges in trader assessments of Lula's share ahead of the October 4 first round. Campaign dynamics including free electoral broadcasts, debates, and lingering effects from bank-fraud inquiries tied to Bolsonaro have produced modest swings without decisive separation. Institutional tensions around the Supreme Court and turnout among core PT and PL bases remain key variables that could shift final valid-vote percentages within the resolution window.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Volume
$3,676End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from mid-September 2026 places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's first-round support in the high 30s to low 40s across major surveys, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing by 5–10 points as other right-leaning candidates such as Augusto Cury draw fragments of the opposition. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters and blank/null ballots often exceeding 10%, sustains tight ranges in trader assessments of Lula's share ahead of the October 4 first round. Campaign dynamics including free electoral broadcasts, debates, and lingering effects from bank-fraud inquiries tied to Bolsonaro have produced modest swings without decisive separation. Institutional tensions around the Supreme Court and turnout among core PT and PL bases remain key variables that could shift final valid-vote percentages within the resolution window.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$3,676End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from mid-September 2026 places incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's first-round support in the high 30s to low 40s across major surveys, with Flávio Bolsonaro trailing by 5–10 points as other right-leaning candidates such as Augusto Cury draw fragments of the opposition. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters and blank/null ballots often exceeding 10%, sustains tight ranges in trader assessments of Lula's share ahead of the October 4 first round. Campaign dynamics including free electoral broadcasts, debates, and lingering effects from bank-fraud inquiries tied to Bolsonaro have produced modest swings without decisive separation. Institutional tensions around the Supreme Court and turnout among core PT and PL bases remain key variables that could shift final valid-vote percentages within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
73%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
34%
Will Augusto Cury win 6% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
38%
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