Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in trader pricing for first place in Rio de Janeiro’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, driven by repeated state-level polls showing him ahead of incumbent Lula by margins of four to six points. As the Liberal Party nominee and a sitting senator from the state, he benefits from consolidated right-wing support, local name recognition, and voter priorities around security and economic policy. Recent Datafolha and Real Time Big Data surveys in Rio confirm this pattern, with other contenders such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado registering in the low single digits. Late developments that could narrow the gap include shifts in turnout among key demographics or unexpected momentum for minor candidates, though current evidence points to limited immediate risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 92%
Lula 9%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$25,217 Vol.
$25,217 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Flavio Bolsonaro
92%
Lula
9%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 92%
Lula 9%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$25,217 Vol.
$25,217 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Flavio Bolsonaro
$11,169 Vol.
92%
Lula
$7,811 Vol.
9%
Clariana Barao
$375 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$453 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$453 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$373 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,393 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$747 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$639 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$431 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$433 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$567 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$373 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in trader pricing for first place in Rio de Janeiro’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, driven by repeated state-level polls showing him ahead of incumbent Lula by margins of four to six points. As the Liberal Party nominee and a sitting senator from the state, he benefits from consolidated right-wing support, local name recognition, and voter priorities around security and economic policy. Recent Datafolha and Real Time Big Data surveys in Rio confirm this pattern, with other contenders such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado registering in the low single digits. Late developments that could narrow the gap include shifts in turnout among key demographics or unexpected momentum for minor candidates, though current evidence points to limited immediate risk.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$25,217End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in trader pricing for first place in Rio de Janeiro’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, driven by repeated state-level polls showing him ahead of incumbent Lula by margins of four to six points. As the Liberal Party nominee and a sitting senator from the state, he benefits from consolidated right-wing support, local name recognition, and voter priorities around security and economic policy. Recent Datafolha and Real Time Big Data surveys in Rio confirm this pattern, with other contenders such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado registering in the low single digits. Late developments that could narrow the gap include shifts in turnout among key demographics or unexpected momentum for minor candidates, though current evidence points to limited immediate risk.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rio de Janeiro.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rio de Janeiro. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$25,217End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in trader pricing for first place in Rio de Janeiro’s October 4 first-round presidential vote, driven by repeated state-level polls showing him ahead of incumbent Lula by margins of four to six points. As the Liberal Party nominee and a sitting senator from the state, he benefits from consolidated right-wing support, local name recognition, and voter priorities around security and economic policy. Recent Datafolha and Real Time Big Data surveys in Rio confirm this pattern, with other contenders such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado registering in the low single digits. Late developments that could narrow the gap include shifts in turnout among key demographics or unexpected momentum for minor candidates, though current evidence points to limited immediate risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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