Skip to main content
icon for Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Elections·Brazil

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

icon for Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
Elections·Brazil

Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner

Eduardo Paes 93.1%

Anthony Garotinho 3.4%

Colonel Busnello 2.5%

Douglas Ruas 1.7%

Polymarket

$282,934 Vol.

Eduardo Paes 93.1%

Anthony Garotinho 3.4%

Colonel Busnello 2.5%

Douglas Ruas 1.7%

Polymarket

$282,934 Vol.

Eduardo Paes

$37,818 Vol.

93%

Anthony Garotinho

$8,356 Vol.

3%

Colonel Busnello

$5,079 Vol.

3%

Douglas Ruas

$11,556 Vol.

2%

Rafa Luz

$5,230 Vol.

1%

Felipe Curi

$17,774 Vol.

<1%

Fred Pacheco

$133,056 Vol.

<1%

Tarcísio Motta

$8,891 Vol.

<1%

Wilson Witzel

$10,582 Vol.

<1%

Lindbergh Farias

$6,102 Vol.

<1%

André Ceciliano

$10,694 Vol.

<1%

Dr. Luizinho

$8,451 Vol.

<1%

Chico Machado

$7,554 Vol.

<1%

Eduardo Pazuello

$2,717 Vol.

<1%

Nicola Miccione

$5,387 Vol.

<1%

André Português

$3,688 Vol.

<1%

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Paes maintains a dominant position in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race, with traders assigning him over 93 percent implied probability ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. His consistent leads in recent polling—often 34 to 60 percent depending on the scenario—stem from his prior terms as Rio mayor, timely resignation in March 2026 to focus on the state contest, and active coalition-building across parties and regions. Lower-priced alternatives such as Colonel Busnello, Anthony Garotinho, and Douglas Ruas trail significantly. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major scandals, health-related withdrawals, decisive shifts in legislative alliances, or unexpectedly strong debate performances by challengers that consolidate opposition support before election day.

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$282,934
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Eduardo Paes maintains a dominant position in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race, with traders assigning him over 93 percent implied probability ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. His consistent leads in recent polling—often 34 to 60 percent depending on the scenario—stem from his prior terms as Rio mayor, timely resignation in March 2026 to focus on the state contest, and active coalition-building across parties and regions. Lower-priced alternatives such as Colonel Busnello, Anthony Garotinho, and Douglas Ruas trail significantly. Late developments that could narrow the gap include major scandals, health-related withdrawals, decisive shifts in legislative alliances, or unexpectedly strong debate performances by challengers that consolidate opposition support before election day.

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$282,934
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Related

icon for Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?

Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?

62%
icon for Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election?

Will Hana Ghassan win the Governor of Pará election?

47%
icon for Will Lucas Ribeiro win the Governor of Paraíba election?

Will Lucas Ribeiro win the Governor of Paraíba election?

72%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eduardo Paes" at 93%, followed by "Anthony Garotinho" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 93¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner" has generated $282.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner" is "Eduardo Paes" at 93%, meaning the market assigns a 93% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Anthony Garotinho" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.