Jorginho Mello (PL), the incumbent governor of Santa Catarina, holds a 92.5% implied probability in the Polymarket market for the October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election due to consistent polling leads of 50% or higher in first-round scenarios and party consolidation behind his reelection bid. Recent confirmation at the PL state convention, backed by national figures including Flávio Bolsonaro, has reinforced his position following his 2022 victory with over 70% of the vote. Challengers such as João Rodrigues (PSD), Gelson Merisio (PSB), and others trail significantly in surveys, with no major shifts reported in the past month. Factors that could narrow the gap include sustained opposition momentum, turnout changes among key voting blocs, or late developments affecting voter preferences before the first-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJorginho Mello 93%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 5.9%
João Rodrigues 1.9%
Adriano Silva <1%
$107,312 Vol.
$107,312 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jorginho Mello
93%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
6%
João Rodrigues
2%
Adriano Silva
1%
Gelson Merisio
1%
Marcos Vieira
<1%
Décio Lima
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
<1%
Jorginho Mello 93%
Marcelo Brigadeiro 5.9%
João Rodrigues 1.9%
Adriano Silva <1%
$107,312 Vol.
$107,312 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Jorginho Mello
$24,043 Vol.
93%
Marcelo Brigadeiro
$14,406 Vol.
6%
João Rodrigues
$1,783 Vol.
2%
Adriano Silva
$919 Vol.
1%
Gelson Merisio
$1,193 Vol.
1%
Marcos Vieira
$1,120 Vol.
<1%
Décio Lima
$62,768 Vol.
<1%
Afrânio Boppré
$1,080 Vol.
<1%
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello (PL), the incumbent governor of Santa Catarina, holds a 92.5% implied probability in the Polymarket market for the October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election due to consistent polling leads of 50% or higher in first-round scenarios and party consolidation behind his reelection bid. Recent confirmation at the PL state convention, backed by national figures including Flávio Bolsonaro, has reinforced his position following his 2022 victory with over 70% of the vote. Challengers such as João Rodrigues (PSD), Gelson Merisio (PSB), and others trail significantly in surveys, with no major shifts reported in the past month. Factors that could narrow the gap include sustained opposition momentum, turnout changes among key voting blocs, or late developments affecting voter preferences before the first-round vote.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$107,312End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Jorginho Mello (PL), the incumbent governor of Santa Catarina, holds a 92.5% implied probability in the Polymarket market for the October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election due to consistent polling leads of 50% or higher in first-round scenarios and party consolidation behind his reelection bid. Recent confirmation at the PL state convention, backed by national figures including Flávio Bolsonaro, has reinforced his position following his 2022 victory with over 70% of the vote. Challengers such as João Rodrigues (PSD), Gelson Merisio (PSB), and others trail significantly in surveys, with no major shifts reported in the past month. Factors that could narrow the gap include sustained opposition momentum, turnout changes among key voting blocs, or late developments affecting voter preferences before the first-round vote.
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$107,312End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Jun 9, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Jorginho Mello (PL), the incumbent governor of Santa Catarina, holds a 92.5% implied probability in the Polymarket market for the October 4, 2026, gubernatorial election due to consistent polling leads of 50% or higher in first-round scenarios and party consolidation behind his reelection bid. Recent confirmation at the PL state convention, backed by national figures including Flávio Bolsonaro, has reinforced his position following his 2022 victory with over 70% of the vote. Challengers such as João Rodrigues (PSD), Gelson Merisio (PSB), and others trail significantly in surveys, with no major shifts reported in the past month. Factors that could narrow the gap include sustained opposition momentum, turnout changes among key voting blocs, or late developments affecting voter preferences before the first-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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