Recent polling in Minas Gerais shows a tight first-round contest for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with Lula holding a narrow numeric lead at 39% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 35% in the latest Real Time Big Data survey, inside the margin of error. The state’s large electorate and historical role as a swing region amplify trader focus on regional divides, with Lula stronger in the metro area and Flávio performing better in parts of the interior. High rejection rates near 50% for both main candidates, combined with vote fragmentation among names like Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema, sustain the close implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing. Upcoming campaign developments, regional economic signals, or shifts in alliances could widen the gap ahead of the October first-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 52%
Flavio Bolsonaro 47.2%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$34,100 Vol.
$34,100 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Lula
52%
Flavio Bolsonaro
47%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 52%
Flavio Bolsonaro 47.2%
Clariana Barao <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
$34,100 Vol.
$34,100 Vol.
Jun 30, 2027
Lula
$15,041 Vol.
52%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$10,510 Vol.
47%
Clariana Barao
$844 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$526 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$486 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$485 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$1,453 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$608 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$473 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$493 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$651 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$578 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$1,951 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling in Minas Gerais shows a tight first-round contest for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with Lula holding a narrow numeric lead at 39% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 35% in the latest Real Time Big Data survey, inside the margin of error. The state’s large electorate and historical role as a swing region amplify trader focus on regional divides, with Lula stronger in the metro area and Flávio performing better in parts of the interior. High rejection rates near 50% for both main candidates, combined with vote fragmentation among names like Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema, sustain the close implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing. Upcoming campaign developments, regional economic signals, or shifts in alliances could widen the gap ahead of the October first-round vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ET
Volume
$34,100End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling in Minas Gerais shows a tight first-round contest for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with Lula holding a narrow numeric lead at 39% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 35% in the latest Real Time Big Data survey, inside the margin of error. The state’s large electorate and historical role as a swing region amplify trader focus on regional divides, with Lula stronger in the metro area and Flávio performing better in parts of the interior. High rejection rates near 50% for both main candidates, combined with vote fragmentation among names like Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema, sustain the close implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing. Upcoming campaign developments, regional economic signals, or shifts in alliances could widen the gap ahead of the October first-round vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$34,100End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in Minas Gerais shows a tight first-round contest for the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, with Lula holding a narrow numeric lead at 39% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 35% in the latest Real Time Big Data survey, inside the margin of error. The state’s large electorate and historical role as a swing region amplify trader focus on regional divides, with Lula stronger in the metro area and Flávio performing better in parts of the interior. High rejection rates near 50% for both main candidates, combined with vote fragmentation among names like Augusto Cury and Romeu Zema, sustain the close implied probabilities reflected in current market pricing. Upcoming campaign developments, regional economic signals, or shifts in alliances could widen the gap ahead of the October first-round vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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