Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Santa Catarina first-round voting intentions, driven by the state's consistent conservative alignment with the Liberal Party and strong bolsonarista voter base. Recent AtlasIntel and Real Time Big Data polls show him at 48-52 percent locally, far ahead of Lula and lower-polling contenders such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning reflects Santa Catarina's 2022 results, ongoing PL governance influence, and Flávio's September campaign stops emphasizing security and economic themes. National first-round dynamics and endorsements have reinforced the gap, though a major late scandal, health event, or sharp turnout shift could still alter the outcome before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 97.4%
Zema <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
97%
Zema
1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Lula
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 97.4%
Zema <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Escritor Augusto Cury <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,937 Vol.
97%
Zema
$338 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$345 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$354 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$364 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$374 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$396 Vol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$436 Vol.
<1%
Lula
$393 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$366 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$336 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$466 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$466 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Santa Catarina first-round voting intentions, driven by the state's consistent conservative alignment with the Liberal Party and strong bolsonarista voter base. Recent AtlasIntel and Real Time Big Data polls show him at 48-52 percent locally, far ahead of Lula and lower-polling contenders such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning reflects Santa Catarina's 2022 results, ongoing PL governance influence, and Flávio's September campaign stops emphasizing security and economic themes. National first-round dynamics and endorsements have reinforced the gap, though a major late scandal, health event, or sharp turnout shift could still alter the outcome before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ET
Volume
$6,571End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Santa Catarina first-round voting intentions, driven by the state's consistent conservative alignment with the Liberal Party and strong bolsonarista voter base. Recent AtlasIntel and Real Time Big Data polls show him at 48-52 percent locally, far ahead of Lula and lower-polling contenders such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning reflects Santa Catarina's 2022 results, ongoing PL governance influence, and Flávio's September campaign stops emphasizing security and economic themes. National first-round dynamics and endorsements have reinforced the gap, though a major late scandal, health event, or sharp turnout shift could still alter the outcome before the October 4 vote.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Santa Catarina, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Santa Catarina.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Santa Catarina. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$6,571End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:36 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Santa Catarina first-round voting intentions, driven by the state's consistent conservative alignment with the Liberal Party and strong bolsonarista voter base. Recent AtlasIntel and Real Time Big Data polls show him at 48-52 percent locally, far ahead of Lula and lower-polling contenders such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Ronaldo Caiado. This positioning reflects Santa Catarina's 2022 results, ongoing PL governance influence, and Flávio's September campaign stops emphasizing security and economic themes. National first-round dynamics and endorsements have reinforced the gap, though a major late scandal, health event, or sharp turnout shift could still alter the outcome before the October 4 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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