Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming trader consensus for first place in Rondônia’s October 4 first round due to the state’s consistent right-leaning electorate and repeated local polling that shows him far ahead. Surveys from July and September placed him at 57–58 percent against Lula at 25 percent, with all other registered candidates in low single digits or below. Rondônia delivered Jair Bolsonaro roughly 70 percent of valid votes in the 2022 runoff, and the same voter base has backed Liberal Party figures in recent state races. Flávio’s July party nomination, August running-mate selection, and continued campaign emphasis on security and anti-incumbent themes have reinforced that regional alignment. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp turnout drop, or unforeseen consolidation behind a single rival could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to durable structural support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFlavio Bolsonaro 98.0%
Lula <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$16,603 Vol.
$16,603 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
98%
Lula
1%
Edmilson Costa
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Samara
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 98.0%
Lula <1%
Edmilson Costa <1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi <1%
$16,603 Vol.
$16,603 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Flavio Bolsonaro
$9,974 Vol.
98%
Lula
$669 Vol.
1%
Edmilson Costa
$490 Vol.
1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$548 Vol.
1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$570 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$480 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$530 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$641 Vol.
<1%
Renan Santos
$499 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$590 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$550 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$535 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$525 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming trader consensus for first place in Rondônia’s October 4 first round due to the state’s consistent right-leaning electorate and repeated local polling that shows him far ahead. Surveys from July and September placed him at 57–58 percent against Lula at 25 percent, with all other registered candidates in low single digits or below. Rondônia delivered Jair Bolsonaro roughly 70 percent of valid votes in the 2022 runoff, and the same voter base has backed Liberal Party figures in recent state races. Flávio’s July party nomination, August running-mate selection, and continued campaign emphasis on security and anti-incumbent themes have reinforced that regional alignment. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp turnout drop, or unforeseen consolidation behind a single rival could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to durable structural support.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ET
Volume
$16,603End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming trader consensus for first place in Rondônia’s October 4 first round due to the state’s consistent right-leaning electorate and repeated local polling that shows him far ahead. Surveys from July and September placed him at 57–58 percent against Lula at 25 percent, with all other registered candidates in low single digits or below. Rondônia delivered Jair Bolsonaro roughly 70 percent of valid votes in the 2022 runoff, and the same voter base has backed Liberal Party figures in recent state races. Flávio’s July party nomination, August running-mate selection, and continued campaign emphasis on security and anti-incumbent themes have reinforced that regional alignment. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp turnout drop, or unforeseen consolidation behind a single rival could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to durable structural support.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$16,603End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming trader consensus for first place in Rondônia’s October 4 first round due to the state’s consistent right-leaning electorate and repeated local polling that shows him far ahead. Surveys from July and September placed him at 57–58 percent against Lula at 25 percent, with all other registered candidates in low single digits or below. Rondônia delivered Jair Bolsonaro roughly 70 percent of valid votes in the 2022 runoff, and the same voter base has backed Liberal Party figures in recent state races. Flávio’s July party nomination, August running-mate selection, and continued campaign emphasis on security and anti-incumbent themes have reinforced that regional alignment. Late developments such as a major scandal, sharp turnout drop, or unforeseen consolidation behind a single rival could still narrow the gap, though current evidence points to durable structural support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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