2026 Midterms Election Odds &amp; Predictions

$7.2K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

95% chance no

-3.5%

$6.2K Vol

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?

55% chance no

-24.5%

$3.2K Vol

Colorado passes ballot measure imposing life sentences on underage sex traffickers?

80% chance yes

-6.0%

$1.9K Vol

Will the Missouri abortion & sex change for minors ban pass?

69% chance no

-6.0%

$1.5K Vol

Will the Virginia abortion protection amendment pass?

91% chance yes

+24.5%

$1.5K Vol

Colorado passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

55% chance yes

+0.0%

NEW

Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?

98% chance yes

+3.8%

NEW

Washington passes ballot measure restricting transgender school sports access?

53% chance yes

-1.5%

NEW

Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access?

65% chance yes

+15.0%

$4M Vol

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

70% chance no

-1.5%

$7.2K Vol

Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?

95% chance no

-3.5%

$6.2K Vol

Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?

55% chance no

-24.5%

Biggest races

most pivotal markets

AK Governor

53% Democrat

+19%

$729K Vol

TX Senate

52% Democrat

+2%

ME Senate

69% Democrat

+1%

$392K Vol

AK Senate

51% Democrat

-2%

$320K Vol

MI Senate

57% Democrat

+0%

AK Governor

53% Democrat

+19%

$729K Vol

TX Senate

52% Democrat

+2%

ME Senate

69% Democrat

+1%

California Governor Election Winner Xavier Becerra

All races

583 markets

Race

State

Fav

Tier

Showing 25 of 50 markets

Midterms 2026 odds

2026 Midterm Election Odds — Live Prediction Market Odds
Market	Top Contender and Nominees	Live Market Odds
California Governor Election Winner	Xavier Becerra	94%
	Steve Hilton	7%
Maine Senate Election Winner	Troy Jackson (D)	70%
	Susan Collins (R)	31%
Alaska Governor Election Winner	Tom Begich	48%
	Bernadette Wilson	29%
	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	10%
	David Bronson	5%
	Click Bishop	3%
	Treg Taylor	3%
	Nancy Dahlstrom	1%
	Mary Peltola	1%
	Matt Claman	1%
	Bill Walker	1%
Texas Senate Election Winner	James Talarico (D)	52%
	Ken Paxton (R)	48%
Alaska Senate Election Winner	Mary Peltola	52%
	Dan Sullivan	49%
Michigan Senate Election Winner	Abdul El-Sayed (D)	59%
	Mike Rogers (R)	43%
FL-06 Republican Primary Winner	Randy Fine	96%
	Alexandra Van Cleef	1%
	Aaron Baker	1%
	Dan Bilzerian	1%
	Charles Gambaro	1%
Michigan Governor Election Winner	Democrat	84%
	Republican	15%
	Independent	1%
Nebraska Senate Election Winner	Pete Ricketts (R)	72%
	Independent	28%
Wisconsin Governor Election Winner	Democrat	69%
	Republican	28%
Ohio Senate Election Winner	Sherrod Brown (D)	52%
	Jon Husted (R)	49%
Ohio Governor Election Winner	Amy Acton (D)	55%
	Vivek Ramaswamy (R)	46%
MN-05 Republican Primary Winner	John Nagel	98%
Montana Senate Election Winner	Republican	91%
	Independent	7%
Georgia Senate Election Winner	Jon Ossoff (D)	92%
	Mike Collins (R)	7%
Florida Senate Election Winner	Republican	87%
	Democrat	13%
Minnesota Governor Election Winner	Democrat	93%
	Republican	5%
Arizona Governor Election Winner	Democrat	87%
	Republican	13%
FL-09 Republican Primary Winner	Ben Butler	50%
	Thomas Chalifoux	29%
	Dan Green	12%
	Jorge Martinez	4%
Nevada Governor Election Winner	Joe Lombardo (R)	65%
	Aaron Ford (D)	32%
Texas Governor Election Winner	Greg Abbott (R)	84%
	Gina Hinojosa (D)	15%
FL-19 Republican Primary Winner	Catalina Lauf	44%
	Jim Schwartzel	41%
	Jim Oberweis	11%
	Madison Cawthorn	4%
	Bob Rommel	2%
	Spencer Roach	1%
FL-22 Republican Primary Winner	Michael Carbonara	47%
	David Burck	39%
	Belinda Keiser	12%
	Casey Askar	6%
FL-02 Republican Primary Winner	Austin Rogers	53%
	Keith Gross	27%
	Evan Power	3%
	Jim Norton	2%
WI-06 Democratic Primary Winner	Brad Smith	84%
	Amanda Bell	15%
WI-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Fred Clark	96%
	Ginger Murray	6%
New Hampshire Senate Election Winner	Democrat	86%
	Republican	13%
Minnesota Senate Election Winner	Democrat	93%
	Republican	7%
MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner	Ilhan Omar	100%
FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner	Jared Moskowitz	89%
	Oliver Larkin	12%
Idaho Senate Election Winner	Republican	95%
	Democrat	5%
FL-14 Republican Primary Winner	Kevin Steele	53%
	Mike Beltran	36%
	Michael Marcel	1%
FL-07 Republican Primary Winner	Ryan Elijah	58%
	Cory Mills	43%
MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory	McKinney <4%	50%
	McKinney 4–8%	37%
	Thanedar <4%	1%
New Hampshire Governor Election Winner	Republican	79%
	Democrat	19%
FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner	Yen Bailey	32%
	Amanda Green	27%
	Nic Zateslo	24%
	Brice Barnes	7%
Kansas Governor Election Winner	Republican	57%
	Democrat	43%
FL-07 Democratic Primary Winner	Bale Dalton	94%
	Marialana Kinter	5%
	Alan Grayson	1%
FL-04 Democratic Primary Winner	LaShonda "L.J." Holloway	78%
	Michael Kirwan	21%
	Brit Robinson	2%
FL-06 Democratic Primary Winner	Eric Yonce	69%
	Ronnie Murchinson-Rivera	29%
	Robert Cooper	2%
	Steve Morgan	1%
MA-04 Democratic Primary Winner	Jake Auchincloss	94%
	Jason Poulos	4%
Arkansas Governor Election Margin of Victory	Republican 25-30%	17%
	Republican 35%+	14%
	Republican 30-35%	14%
	Republican 10-15%	13%
	Republican 20-25%	10%
	Republican 15-20%	9%
	Republican 0-5%	9%
	Republican 5-10%	8%
	Democrat Wins	6%
Alabama Senate Election Margin of Victory	Republican 20-25%	19%
	Republican 15-20%	16%
	Republican 5-10%	14%
	Republican 25-30%	12%
	Republican 10-15%	10%
	Republican 30-35%	8%
	Republican 35%+	6%
	Republican 0-5%	5%
	Democrat Wins	2%
Louisiana Senate Election Margin of Victory	Republican 15-20%	20%
	Republican 5-10%	17%
	Republican 20-25%	16%
	Republican 10-15%	16%
	Republican 25-30%	14%
	Republican 35%+	9%
	Republican 30-35%	9%
	Democrat Wins	7%
	Republican 0-5%	6%
Tennessee Governor Election Margin of Victory	Republican 10-15%	24%
	Republican 40%+	14%
	Republican 30-35%	14%
	Republican 25-30%	14%
	Republican 35-40%	13%
	Republican 15-20%	10%
	Republican 20-25%	8%
	Republican 5-10%	8%
	Republican 0-5%	4%
	Democrat Wins	3%
Colorado Governor Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 15-20%	20%
	Democrat 20-25%	16%
	Democrat 30-35%	13%
	Democrat 10-15%	12%
	Democrat 0-5%	11%
	Democrat 5-10%	11%
	Democrat 25-30%	11%
	Democrat 35-40%	8%
	Republican Wins	7%
	Democrat 40%+	6%
Nebraska Governor Election Margin of Victory	Republican 15-20%	18%
	Republican 35%+	15%
	Republican 20-25%	15%
	Republican 10-15%	15%
	Republican 25-30%	14%
	Republican 30-35%	13%
	Republican 5-10%	10%
	Republican 0-5%	9%
	Democrat Wins	6%
Michigan Governor Election Margin of Victory	Democrat 6-9%	18%
	Democrat 9-12%	15%
	Democrat 3-6%	14%
	Democrat 18%+	14%
	Democrat 12-15%	13%
	Democrat 0-3%	12%
	Democrat 15-18%	12%
	Republican 0-3%	10%
	Republican 3-6%	9%
	Republican 6%+	6%
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	31%

94%

Steve Hilton

Maine Senate Election Winner Troy Jackson (D)

70%

Susan Collins (R)

31%

Alaska Governor Election Winner Tom Begich

48%

Bernadette Wilson

29%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Texas Senate Election Winner James Talarico (D)

52%

Ken Paxton (R)

48%

Alaska Senate Election Winner Mary Peltola

52%

Dan Sullivan

49%

Michigan Senate Election Winner Abdul El-Sayed (D)

59%

Mike Rogers (R)

43%

FL-06 Republican Primary Winner Randy Fine

Michigan Governor Election Winner Democrat

Nebraska Senate Election Winner Pete Ricketts (R)

72%

Independent

28%

Wisconsin Governor Election Winner Democrat

69%

Ohio Senate Election Winner Sherrod Brown (D)

28%

52%

Jon Husted (R)

49%

Ohio Governor Election Winner Amy Acton (D)

55%

Vivek Ramaswamy (R)

46%

MN-05 Republican Primary Winner John Nagel

98%

Montana Senate Election Winner Republican

91%

Independent

Georgia Senate Election Winner Jon Ossoff (D)

92%

Mike Collins (R)

Florida Senate Election Winner Republican

87%

Minnesota Governor Election Winner Democrat

13%

93%

Arizona Governor Election Winner Democrat

87%

FL-09 Republican Primary Winner Ben Butler

13%

Nevada Governor Election Winner Joe Lombardo (R)

65%

Aaron Ford (D)

32%

Texas Governor Election Winner Greg Abbott (R)

84%

Gina Hinojosa (D)

15%

FL-19 Republican Primary Winner Catalina Lauf

FL-22 Republican Primary Winner Michael Carbonara

FL-02 Republican Primary Winner Austin Rogers

WI-06 Democratic Primary Winner Brad Smith

84%

Amanda Bell

15%

WI-07 Democratic Primary Winner Fred Clark

96%

Ginger Murray

New Hampshire Senate Election Winner Democrat

86%

Minnesota Senate Election Winner Democrat

13%

93%

MN-05 Democratic Primary Winner Ilhan Omar

100%

FL-25 Democratic Primary Winner Jared Moskowitz

89%

Oliver Larkin

12%

Idaho Senate Election Winner Republican

95%

FL-14 Republican Primary Winner Kevin Steele

FL-07 Republican Primary Winner Ryan Elijah

58%

Cory Mills

43%

MI-13 Democratic Primary Margin of Victory McKinney <4%

New Hampshire Governor Election Winner Republican

79%

FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner Yen Bailey

19%

Kansas Governor Election Winner Republican

57%