Recent first-round results in Brazil have positioned Flávio Bolsonaro as the clear favorite to win the October 25 runoff against incumbent Lula, strengthening right-leaning outcomes in the three-way market. In Israel, polls show Gadi Eizenkot’s Yashar party leading Likud ahead of the October 27 vote, elevating combinations featuring Eizenkot as the next prime minister. US Senate control remains a near toss-up for the November 3 midterms, with forecasts split on whether Democrats can net the four seats needed to flip the chamber from Republican hands. These converging timelines keep the leading Bolsonaro-Eizenkot-Dems combo at 32% while spreading probability across alternatives, as late shifts in any contest—particularly Senate margins or Israeli coalition arithmetic—could quickly reorder the field.