President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has one open Supreme Court vacancy on the STF following Justice Luís Roberto Barroso’s retirement in October 2025. His initial nominee, Solicitor General Jorge Messias, was rejected by the Senate in a 42-34 vote in April 2026—the first such defeat for a president in over a century—amid opposition resistance and Senate leadership preferences. Lula has publicly stated he may resubmit Messias or propose another candidate, but no new formal nomination has advanced as of late September 2026. Key variables include the need for at least 41 Senate votes, ongoing coalition talks with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, and positioning ahead of the October general election. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates reflects these procedural and political hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$26,463 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
5%
December 31
56%
$26,463 Vol.
September 30
$6,253 Vol.
5%
December 31
$6,461 Vol.
56%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has one open Supreme Court vacancy on the STF following Justice Luís Roberto Barroso’s retirement in October 2025. His initial nominee, Solicitor General Jorge Messias, was rejected by the Senate in a 42-34 vote in April 2026—the first such defeat for a president in over a century—amid opposition resistance and Senate leadership preferences. Lula has publicly stated he may resubmit Messias or propose another candidate, but no new formal nomination has advanced as of late September 2026. Key variables include the need for at least 41 Senate votes, ongoing coalition talks with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, and positioning ahead of the October general election. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates reflects these procedural and political hurdles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$26,463End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has one open Supreme Court vacancy on the STF following Justice Luís Roberto Barroso’s retirement in October 2025. His initial nominee, Solicitor General Jorge Messias, was rejected by the Senate in a 42-34 vote in April 2026—the first such defeat for a president in over a century—amid opposition resistance and Senate leadership preferences. Lula has publicly stated he may resubmit Messias or propose another candidate, but no new formal nomination has advanced as of late September 2026. Key variables include the need for at least 41 Senate votes, ongoing coalition talks with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, and positioning ahead of the October general election. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates reflects these procedural and political hurdles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) nominates an individual for Minister (Ministro) of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil (Supremo Tribunal Federal) by the listed date, 11:59 PM Brasilia time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement from Lula or the Office of the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (Presidência da República) stating that Lula has nominated an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurred.
Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, announcements of intention to nominate an individual in the future, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates will not qualify. Media reports, speculation, or other unofficial information will not qualify.
A formal presidential nomination of an individual to be Minister of the Supreme Federal Court will also suffice to resolve this market. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the President of the Federal Senate (presidente do Senado Federal).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil (https://www.gov.br/planalto), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$26,463End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 2, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has one open Supreme Court vacancy on the STF following Justice Luís Roberto Barroso’s retirement in October 2025. His initial nominee, Solicitor General Jorge Messias, was rejected by the Senate in a 42-34 vote in April 2026—the first such defeat for a president in over a century—amid opposition resistance and Senate leadership preferences. Lula has publicly stated he may resubmit Messias or propose another candidate, but no new formal nomination has advanced as of late September 2026. Key variables include the need for at least 41 Senate votes, ongoing coalition talks with Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, and positioning ahead of the October general election. Trader consensus on near-term resolution dates reflects these procedural and political hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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