United Russia maintains a commanding lead in the Moscow Oblast Duma election market due to its incumbency advantage, holding 36 of 50 seats from the prior cycle, combined with the ruling party's control of regional institutions and superior organizational resources ahead of the 18–20 September 2026 vote. The parallel electoral system—half proportional representation with a 5% threshold and half single-member districts—further favors established parties with broad reach, while opposition groups such as the CPRF, LDPR, and New People remain fragmented and trail significantly in available polling. Trader consensus at 96.7% for United Russia reflects these structural realities and the absence of recent disruptive events, though outcomes could still shift if unexpected registration barriers, coordinated opposition gains in key districts, or late administrative developments alter turnout or candidate viability before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUnited Russia 97.0%
Rodina 1.7%
New People 1.4%
The Greens 1.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
United Russia
97%
Rodina
2%
New People
1%
The Greens
1%
Communists of Russia
1%
A Just Russia
1%
Party of Pensioners
<1%
CPRF
<1%
LDPR
<1%
Yabloko
<1%
United Russia 97.0%
Rodina 1.7%
New People 1.4%
The Greens 1.3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
United Russia
$1,343 Vol.
97%
Rodina
$347 Vol.
2%
New People
$869 Vol.
1%
The Greens
$492 Vol.
1%
Communists of Russia
$284 Vol.
1%
A Just Russia
$604 Vol.
1%
Party of Pensioners
$592 Vol.
<1%
CPRF
$347 Vol.
<1%
LDPR
$352 Vol.
<1%
Yabloko
$362 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Moscow Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.United Russia maintains a commanding lead in the Moscow Oblast Duma election market due to its incumbency advantage, holding 36 of 50 seats from the prior cycle, combined with the ruling party's control of regional institutions and superior organizational resources ahead of the 18–20 September 2026 vote. The parallel electoral system—half proportional representation with a 5% threshold and half single-member districts—further favors established parties with broad reach, while opposition groups such as the CPRF, LDPR, and New People remain fragmented and trail significantly in available polling. Trader consensus at 96.7% for United Russia reflects these structural realities and the absence of recent disruptive events, though outcomes could still shift if unexpected registration barriers, coordinated opposition gains in key districts, or late administrative developments alter turnout or candidate viability before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Moscow Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
Volume
$5,595End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Moscow Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.United Russia maintains a commanding lead in the Moscow Oblast Duma election market due to its incumbency advantage, holding 36 of 50 seats from the prior cycle, combined with the ruling party's control of regional institutions and superior organizational resources ahead of the 18–20 September 2026 vote. The parallel electoral system—half proportional representation with a 5% threshold and half single-member districts—further favors established parties with broad reach, while opposition groups such as the CPRF, LDPR, and New People remain fragmented and trail significantly in available polling. Trader consensus at 96.7% for United Russia reflects these structural realities and the absence of recent disruptive events, though outcomes could still shift if unexpected registration barriers, coordinated opposition gains in key districts, or late administrative developments alter turnout or candidate viability before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Duma of Moscow Oblast, Russia are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Duma of Moscow Oblast as a result of this election.
The number of seats will include all members of the Duma of Moscow Oblast serving as a result of this election, including members elected in a single- or multiple-member constituency or by proportional representation, where applicable.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose party list received a greater number of valid votes in the specified region’s proportional representation system. Aggregate votes received in constituencies will have no bearing on resolution in a tie. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
A constituency-elected member will count towards the party they registered to contest the election with. A member elected by proportional representation will count towards the party whose list they were elected from.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. Independents will not count towards any party.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Moscow Oblast and Russia, including the Election Commission of Moscow Oblast and the Central Election Commission of Russia.
Volume
$5,595End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...United Russia maintains a commanding lead in the Moscow Oblast Duma election market due to its incumbency advantage, holding 36 of 50 seats from the prior cycle, combined with the ruling party's control of regional institutions and superior organizational resources ahead of the 18–20 September 2026 vote. The parallel electoral system—half proportional representation with a 5% threshold and half single-member districts—further favors established parties with broad reach, while opposition groups such as the CPRF, LDPR, and New People remain fragmented and trail significantly in available polling. Trader consensus at 96.7% for United Russia reflects these structural realities and the absence of recent disruptive events, though outcomes could still shift if unexpected registration barriers, coordinated opposition gains in key districts, or late administrative developments alter turnout or candidate viability before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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