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icon for Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?
World·Israel

Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

icon for Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?
World·Israel

Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?

NEW
Nov 30, 2026
Polymarket

$83 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for RZP-Zehut

RZP-Zehut

$0 Vol.

79%

icon for Ra'am

Ra'am

$30 Vol.

79%

icon for Amcha Yisrael

Amcha Yisrael

$0 Vol.

66%

icon for Reservists and New Economic Party

Reservists and New Economic Party

$0 Vol.

30%

icon for Blue & White

Blue & White

$53 Vol.

11%

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset elections show a fragmented field with no bloc securing a clear 61-seat majority. Likud leads most surveys around 20-27 seats, closely trailed by Yashar under Gadi Eisenkot, while Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad and other centrist or opposition lists compete for support. Alliances such as Religious Zionism-Zehut and party list finalizations by the September 8 deadline have clarified the ballot, though several smaller lists hover near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold. Ongoing bloc dynamics between pro-Netanyahu and opposition groupings, combined with voter turnout among key sectors, remain central to which parties ultimately secure seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$83
End Date
Oct 27, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset elections show a fragmented field with no bloc securing a clear 61-seat majority. Likud leads most surveys around 20-27 seats, closely trailed by Yashar under Gadi Eisenkot, while Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad and other centrist or opposition lists compete for support. Alliances such as Religious Zionism-Zehut and party list finalizations by the September 8 deadline have clarified the ballot, though several smaller lists hover near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold. Ongoing bloc dynamics between pro-Netanyahu and opposition groupings, combined with voter turnout among key sectors, remain central to which parties ultimately secure seats in the 120-member Knesset.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volume
$83
End Date
Oct 27, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "RZP-Zehut" at 79%, followed by "Ra'am" at 79%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?" is "RZP-Zehut" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ra'am" at 79%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.