Social Democrats have held a steady lead as Sweden’s largest party in the run-up to the September 13 parliamentary election, with polling averages placing their support near 28-30 percent against roughly 18-19 percent for the Sweden Democrats in second place. This positioning has produced a consistent 9-10 point margin that aligns with trader consensus for a 7-10 percent victory margin. The bloc contest between the centre-left opposition and the right-wing Tidö parties tightened in the final weeks, yet the gap between the top two individual parties remained largely stable amid campaign focus on the economy, crime, and immigration. Late swings in turnout or unexpected strength from smaller parties could narrow the margin, though current evidence from exit polls and preliminary counts points to limited movement from the established range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedS 7-10% 100.0%
S <4% <1%
Another Party Wins <1%
S 4-7% <1%
$21,533 Vol.
$21,533 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
S <4%
No
S 4-7%
No
S 7-10%
Yes
S 10-13%
No
S 13%+
No
Another Party Wins
No
S 7-10% 100.0%
S <4% <1%
Another Party Wins <1%
S 4-7% <1%
$21,533 Vol.
$21,533 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
S <4%
$5,205 Vol.
No
S 4-7%
$2,441 Vol.
No
S 7-10%
$6,364 Vol.
Yes
S 10-13%
$5,356 Vol.
No
S 13%+
$1,862 Vol.
No
Another Party Wins
$304 Vol.
No
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Social Democrats have held a steady lead as Sweden’s largest party in the run-up to the September 13 parliamentary election, with polling averages placing their support near 28-30 percent against roughly 18-19 percent for the Sweden Democrats in second place. This positioning has produced a consistent 9-10 point margin that aligns with trader consensus for a 7-10 percent victory margin. The bloc contest between the centre-left opposition and the right-wing Tidö parties tightened in the final weeks, yet the gap between the top two individual parties remained largely stable amid campaign focus on the economy, crime, and immigration. Late swings in turnout or unexpected strength from smaller parties could narrow the margin, though current evidence from exit polls and preliminary counts points to limited movement from the established range.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Market Opened: Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$21,533End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Social Democrats have held a steady lead as Sweden’s largest party in the run-up to the September 13 parliamentary election, with polling averages placing their support near 28-30 percent against roughly 18-19 percent for the Sweden Democrats in second place. This positioning has produced a consistent 9-10 point margin that aligns with trader consensus for a 7-10 percent victory margin. The bloc contest between the centre-left opposition and the right-wing Tidö parties tightened in the final weeks, yet the gap between the top two individual parties remained largely stable amid campaign focus on the economy, crime, and immigration. Late swings in turnout or unexpected strength from smaller parties could narrow the margin, though current evidence from exit polls and preliminary counts points to limited movement from the established range.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Volume
$21,533End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Social Democrats have held a steady lead as Sweden’s largest party in the run-up to the September 13 parliamentary election, with polling averages placing their support near 28-30 percent against roughly 18-19 percent for the Sweden Democrats in second place. This positioning has produced a consistent 9-10 point margin that aligns with trader consensus for a 7-10 percent victory margin. The bloc contest between the centre-left opposition and the right-wing Tidö parties tightened in the final weeks, yet the gap between the top two individual parties remained largely stable amid campaign focus on the economy, crime, and immigration. Late swings in turnout or unexpected strength from smaller parties could narrow the margin, though current evidence from exit polls and preliminary counts points to limited movement from the established range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions