Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine currently lead trader assessments for the tightest 2026 Senate margins due to a cluster of toss-up and lean contests featuring well-funded challengers against vulnerable incumbents or open seats. In Texas, the Republican primary winner faces a competitive Democratic opponent in a state shifting toward closer partisan balance; Iowa’s open race pits strong nominees in a traditionally Republican stronghold; Ohio pits experienced candidates in a battleground environment; and Alaska and Maine feature high-profile matchups with proven cross-aisle appeal. Recent ratings upgrades for Democrats in several of these states, combined with polling volatility and midterm dynamics, sustain the narrow spreads. Late-cycle polls, candidate debates, turnout shifts in key counties, or unexpected national developments could widen or reorder the field before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTexas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 13.7%
$28,210 Vol.
$28,210 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
25%
Iowa
22%
Maine
15%
Ohio (Special)
14%
Alaska
12%
Michigan
6%
Nebraska
5%
New Mexico
3%
Florida (Special)
3%
Virginia
2%
North Carolina
2%
New Hampshire
2%
Georgia
1%
Colorado
1%
Minnesota
1%
Montana
<1%
Texas 25%
Iowa 22.4%
Maine 15%
Ohio (Special) 13.7%
$28,210 Vol.
$28,210 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Texas
$1,058 Vol.
25%
Iowa
$2,677 Vol.
22%
Maine
$1,285 Vol.
15%
Ohio (Special)
$5,040 Vol.
14%
Alaska
$5,272 Vol.
12%
Michigan
$2,490 Vol.
6%
Nebraska
$275 Vol.
5%
New Mexico
$160 Vol.
3%
Florida (Special)
$253 Vol.
3%
Virginia
$5,073 Vol.
2%
North Carolina
$621 Vol.
2%
New Hampshire
$485 Vol.
2%
Georgia
$752 Vol.
1%
Colorado
$662 Vol.
1%
Minnesota
$1,489 Vol.
1%
Montana
$616 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine currently lead trader assessments for the tightest 2026 Senate margins due to a cluster of toss-up and lean contests featuring well-funded challengers against vulnerable incumbents or open seats. In Texas, the Republican primary winner faces a competitive Democratic opponent in a state shifting toward closer partisan balance; Iowa’s open race pits strong nominees in a traditionally Republican stronghold; Ohio pits experienced candidates in a battleground environment; and Alaska and Maine feature high-profile matchups with proven cross-aisle appeal. Recent ratings upgrades for Democrats in several of these states, combined with polling volatility and midterm dynamics, sustain the narrow spreads. Late-cycle polls, candidate debates, turnout shifts in key counties, or unexpected national developments could widen or reorder the field before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
Volume
$28,210End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine currently lead trader assessments for the tightest 2026 Senate margins due to a cluster of toss-up and lean contests featuring well-funded challengers against vulnerable incumbents or open seats. In Texas, the Republican primary winner faces a competitive Democratic opponent in a state shifting toward closer partisan balance; Iowa’s open race pits strong nominees in a traditionally Republican stronghold; Ohio pits experienced candidates in a battleground environment; and Alaska and Maine feature high-profile matchups with proven cross-aisle appeal. Recent ratings upgrades for Democrats in several of these states, combined with polling volatility and midterm dynamics, sustain the narrow spreads. Late-cycle polls, candidate debates, turnout shifts in key counties, or unexpected national developments could widen or reorder the field before November.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$28,210End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jun 26, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Texas, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and Maine currently lead trader assessments for the tightest 2026 Senate margins due to a cluster of toss-up and lean contests featuring well-funded challengers against vulnerable incumbents or open seats. In Texas, the Republican primary winner faces a competitive Democratic opponent in a state shifting toward closer partisan balance; Iowa’s open race pits strong nominees in a traditionally Republican stronghold; Ohio pits experienced candidates in a battleground environment; and Alaska and Maine feature high-profile matchups with proven cross-aisle appeal. Recent ratings upgrades for Democrats in several of these states, combined with polling volatility and midterm dynamics, sustain the narrow spreads. Late-cycle polls, candidate debates, turnout shifts in key counties, or unexpected national developments could widen or reorder the field before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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