Several 2026 Senate battlegrounds stand out as potential sub-1% contests due to their toss-up ratings from forecasters including Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ. Recent polling averages and ratings shifts have tightened races in Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Michigan, with some moving into toss-up territory as of mid-August. Democrats hold structural advantages on the generic ballot and in open or vulnerable Republican seats such as North Carolina and Texas, while Republicans defend more total seats amid a map that still favors their majority retention. Key variables include candidate recruitment and fundraising edges in states like Georgia and Michigan, late-cycle polling movement, and turnout patterns in battlegrounds. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with primaries largely concluded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Nov 3, 2026
Virginia
50%
Colorado
50%
Montana
50%
New Mexico
50%
Georgia
50%
Minnesota
50%
Texas
50%
Maine
50%
Michigan
50%
Iowa
50%
Alaska
50%
Ohio (Special)
50%
New Hampshire
50%
Nebraska
50%
Florida (Special)
50%
North Carolina
50%
$0.00 Vol.
Virginia
$0 Vol.
50%
Colorado
$0 Vol.
50%
Montana
$0 Vol.
50%
New Mexico
$0 Vol.
50%
Georgia
$0 Vol.
50%
Minnesota
$0 Vol.
50%
Texas
$0 Vol.
50%
Maine
$0 Vol.
50%
Michigan
$0 Vol.
50%
Iowa
$0 Vol.
50%
Alaska
$0 Vol.
50%
Ohio (Special)
$0 Vol.
50%
New Hampshire
$0 Vol.
50%
Nebraska
$0 Vol.
50%
Florida (Special)
$0 Vol.
50%
North Carolina
$0 Vol.
50%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate battlegrounds stand out as potential sub-1% contests due to their toss-up ratings from forecasters including Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ. Recent polling averages and ratings shifts have tightened races in Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Michigan, with some moving into toss-up territory as of mid-August. Democrats hold structural advantages on the generic ballot and in open or vulnerable Republican seats such as North Carolina and Texas, while Republicans defend more total seats amid a map that still favors their majority retention. Key variables include candidate recruitment and fundraising edges in states like Georgia and Michigan, late-cycle polling movement, and turnout patterns in battlegrounds. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with primaries largely concluded.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate battlegrounds stand out as potential sub-1% contests due to their toss-up ratings from forecasters including Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ. Recent polling averages and ratings shifts have tightened races in Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Michigan, with some moving into toss-up territory as of mid-August. Democrats hold structural advantages on the generic ballot and in open or vulnerable Republican seats such as North Carolina and Texas, while Republicans defend more total seats amid a map that still favors their majority retention. Key variables include candidate recruitment and fundraising edges in states like Georgia and Michigan, late-cycle polling movement, and turnout patterns in battlegrounds. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with primaries largely concluded.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several 2026 Senate battlegrounds stand out as potential sub-1% contests due to their toss-up ratings from forecasters including Cook Political Report and Decision Desk HQ. Recent polling averages and ratings shifts have tightened races in Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, and Michigan, with some moving into toss-up territory as of mid-August. Democrats hold structural advantages on the generic ballot and in open or vulnerable Republican seats such as North Carolina and Texas, while Republicans defend more total seats amid a map that still favors their majority retention. Key variables include candidate recruitment and fundraising edges in states like Georgia and Michigan, late-cycle polling movement, and turnout patterns in battlegrounds. The November 3 general election remains the resolution trigger, with primaries largely concluded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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