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icon for Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30?
Politics·Senate

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30?

icon for Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30?
Politics·Senate

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30?

Aug 31

Sep 30

Aug 31

Sep 30

19% chance
Polymarket
NEW
19% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky casts a recorded vote in the United States Senate on any bill, resolution, nomination, motion, or any other measure between market creation and September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Votes in committee will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Mitch McConnell’s prolonged health-related absence and announced retirement drive the strong trader consensus against him casting a Senate vote by September 30, 2026.** The Kentucky Republican, who announced in February 2025 that his current term ending in January 2027 would be his last, has not voted since June 11, 2026. A fall and pneumonia diagnosis led to hospitalization and nearly eight weeks in rehabilitation; he was discharged on August 6 to continue recovery at home during the Senate’s August recess. With the chamber set to reconvene in September, no public statements or scheduling indicate an imminent return to the floor. At age 84, McConnell’s recent medical history and decision to retire align with patterns where senators in similar circumstances limit or end active participation before term expiration. The implied 81.5% probability on “No” reflects traders’ assessment of these verified developments and the short timeline remaining.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky casts a recorded vote in the United States Senate on any bill, resolution, nomination, motion, or any other measure between market creation and September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Votes in committee will not be relevant for purposes of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$158
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky casts a recorded vote in the United States Senate on any bill, resolution, nomination, motion, or any other measure between market creation and September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Votes in committee will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky casts a recorded vote in the United States Senate on any bill, resolution, nomination, motion, or any other measure between market creation and September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Votes in committee will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Mitch McConnell’s prolonged health-related absence and announced retirement drive the strong trader consensus against him casting a Senate vote by September 30, 2026.** The Kentucky Republican, who announced in February 2025 that his current term ending in January 2027 would be his last, has not voted since June 11, 2026. A fall and pneumonia diagnosis led to hospitalization and nearly eight weeks in rehabilitation; he was discharged on August 6 to continue recovery at home during the Senate’s August recess. With the chamber set to reconvene in September, no public statements or scheduling indicate an imminent return to the floor. At age 84, McConnell’s recent medical history and decision to retire align with patterns where senators in similar circumstances limit or end active participation before term expiration. The implied 81.5% probability on “No” reflects traders’ assessment of these verified developments and the short timeline remaining.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky casts a recorded vote in the United States Senate on any bill, resolution, nomination, motion, or any other measure between market creation and September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Votes in committee will not be relevant for purposes of this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$158
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 3:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky casts a recorded vote in the United States Senate on any bill, resolution, nomination, motion, or any other measure between market creation and September 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Votes in committee will not be relevant for purposes of this market. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Senate; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 19% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 19¢, the market collectively assigns a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 18, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30?" is 19% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 19% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.