Russian forces continue limited ground assaults and infiltration missions toward Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast's Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area, a key logistics hub anchoring Ukraine's fortress belt defenses around Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and Druzhkivka, but Ukrainian forces have advanced and struck back against these probes, per ISW's May 12 assessment showing no confirmed Russian positions east or west of the city. Geolocated footage confirms Ukrainian control in contested zones despite Russian shelling, following a brief May 9-11 ceasefire that yielded no territorial shifts. Heavy frontline clashes persist with no full capture, as Russian spring-summer offensives face Ukrainian mid-range strikes degrading logistics; Russian command eyes Kramatorsk outskirts by late May amid high attrition rates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPravda USA reports Russian troops broke through Ukrainian defences and seized Molocharka on 12 May, a concrete gain on the city’s northern outskirts, supporting the modest rebound
May 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Pravda USA reports Russian troops broke through Ukrainian defences and seized Molocharka on 12 May, a concrete gain on the city’s northern outskirts, supporting the modest rebound seen later in the week
Pravda USA reported that Russian forces had finally broken Ukrainian defenses and seized the centre of Molocharka, only 2.5 km from the main Kostyantynivka front, renewing
May 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Pravda USA reported that Russian forces had finally broken Ukrainian defenses and seized the centre of Molocharka, only 2.5 km from the main Kostyantynivka front, renewing optimism and lifting the
Pravda USA reports Russian forces break through defenses and capture the centre of Molocharka on the northern outskirts (≈2.5 km from the city’s advance line), a new gain on the
December 31, 2026 drops to 76%12%
Pravda USA reports Russian forces break through defenses and capture the centre of Molocharka on the northern outskirts (≈2.5 km from the city’s advance line), a new gain on the opposite flank
Pravda USA reported Russian forces captured the suburb Molocharka (2.5 km north of the city) but had not taken Kostyantynivka itself, tempering expectations of a full capture
December 31, 2026 dips to 76%1%
Pravda USA reported Russian forces captured the suburb Molocharka (2.5 km north of the city) but had not taken Kostyantynivka itself, tempering expectations of a full capture before year‑end
Ukrainian military reported that only ~2,500 civilians remained in Kostyantynivka and that Russian forces were unable to secure a decisive breakthrough, cementing the
June 30, 2026 dips to 32%1%
Ukrainian military reported that only ~2,500 civilians remained in Kostyantynivka and that Russian forces were unable to secure a decisive breakthrough, cementing the low‑probability outlook
Russian state media celebrated Victory Day, claiming 30 % of Kostyantynivka had fallen, but independent analysts warned the cease‑fire would break within days and that the claim
May 31, 2026 jumps to 14%7%
Russian state media celebrated Victory Day, claiming 30 % of Kostyantynivka had fallen, but independent analysts warned the cease‑fire would break within days and that the claim was likely exaggerated, causing the market to rebound modestly
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions in southern Kostyantynivka on May 7‑8, yet Ukrainian forces continue interdicting Russian lines of communication, indicating the city is
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions in southern Kostyantynivka on May 7‑8, yet Ukrainian forces continue interdicting Russian lines of communication, indicating the city is still not under Russian control
Russian investigative outlet Dossier Center revealed internal Kremlin “After Victory” slides outlining a post‑war scenario, signalling that Moscow was already planning an exit
June 30, 2026 rises to 33%2%
Russian investigative outlet Dossier Center revealed internal Kremlin “After Victory” slides outlining a post‑war scenario, signalling that Moscow was already planning an exit rather than a new offensive
ISW assessment shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions northeast of Kostyantynivka;
Russian mil‑bloggers claim limited advances, but analysts say pressure remains constant without full‑scale fighting
Russian forces improve tactical position on Kostyantynivka approaches, but Ukrainian defenses remain strong – Pravda’s May 7 summary noted “Russian forces improve their tactical
September 30, 2026 rises to 55%4%
Russian forces improve tactical position on Kostyantynivka approaches, but Ukrainian defenses remain strong – Pravda’s May 7 summary noted “Russian forces improve their tactical position” while also stressing continued Ukrainian resistance, leading to a slight rebound in the market’s odds.
ISW notes Russian forces adapting attacks to weather, limiting drone‑supported assaults – The assessment explained that poor weather forced Russia to rely on larger ground groups
September 30, 2026 surges to 57%23%
ISW notes Russian forces adapting attacks to weather, limiting drone‑supported assaults – The assessment explained that poor weather forced Russia to rely on larger ground groups rather than drone‑led operations, suggesting a temporary slowdown but not a reversal, nudging the.
Report of rising Russian troop desertions undermining the Kostyantynivka offensive – CryptoBriefing highlighted increasing desertions among Russian troops, a factor that could
September 30, 2026 drops to 51%6%
Report of rising Russian troop desertions undermining the Kostyantynivka offensive – CryptoBriefing highlighted increasing desertions among Russian troops, a factor that could hamper offensive capability and caused a modest.
ISW notes continued Russian infiltrations on May 6 but no urban breakthrough;
May 31, 2026 drops to 13%8%
Ukrainian forces counter‑attack in the area
Russian infiltration mission reported in Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area – ISW’s May 5 assessment recorded a new Russian infiltration mission, and a Ukrainian battalion
September 30, 2026 surges to 64%21%
Russian infiltration mission reported in Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka tactical area – ISW’s May 5 assessment recorded a new Russian infiltration mission, and a Ukrainian battalion commander described Russian forces adapting tactics (night attacks with anti‑thermal imaging ponchos), which was interpreted as a possible escalation, pushing the.
ISW (May 5) notes Russian forces “did not make confirmed advances” in the Slovyansk direction and that Ukrainian commanders report Russian night attacks are limited by weather,
May 31, 2026 plunges to 15%16%
ISW (May 5) notes Russian forces “did not make confirmed advances” in the Slovyansk direction and that Ukrainian commanders report Russian night attacks are limited by weather, leading to a rapid decline
Pravda Ukraine reports intensified fighting inside Kostyantynivka and Russian advances near Novodmitrivka – The outlet described “fierce fighting” and “evidence of new attacks on
September 30, 2026 plunges to 34%30%
Pravda Ukraine reports intensified fighting inside Kostyantynivka and Russian advances near Novodmitrivka – The outlet described “fierce fighting” and “evidence of new attacks on the eastern outskirts,” but also highlighted Ukrainian control of key routes, leading the market to sharply downgrade the capture odds .
ISW records another Russian infiltration mission in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area;
May 31, 2026 jumps to 21%6%
Ukrainian battalion commander reports Russian night attacks using anti‑thermal imaging ponchos
ISW’s May 4 assessment noted continued Russian infiltration attempts but no territorial gains, while Ukrainian forces counter‑attacked, leading traders to lower the capture
December 31, 2026 drops to 75%5%
ISW’s May 4 assessment noted continued Russian infiltration attempts but no territorial gains, while Ukrainian forces counter‑attacked, leading traders to lower the capture probability
Continued intense combat in the Kostyantynivka direction with Russian “South” grouping advancing only marginally, while Ukrainian defenses held key approaches, keeping the market
June 30, 2026 dips to 33%1%
Continued intense combat in the Kostyantynivka direction with Russian “South” grouping advancing only marginally, while Ukrainian defenses held key approaches, keeping the market near its low
Pravda’s May 12 2026 article (published early May) notes Russian forces captured the centre of Molocharka, a settlement only 2.5 km from the front line, renewing optimism that the
May 31, 2026 surges to 24%17%
Pravda’s May 12 2026 article (published early May) notes Russian forces captured the centre of Molocharka, a settlement only 2.5 km from the front line, renewing optimism that the city could fall soon and nudging the
The Guardian reports Russian troops “inching” toward Kostyantynivka, yet Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi says counter‑sabotage measures are underway and Russian control
May 31, 2026 surges to 31%21%
The Guardian reports Russian troops “inching” toward Kostyantynivka, yet Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi says counter‑sabotage measures are underway and Russian control extends only ~1 km from the southern outskirts
Ukrainian counter‑attacks in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area push Russian units back from the city’s outskirts, lifting market confidence that Russia will not capture the town
June 30, 2026 jumps to 33%5%
Ukrainian counter‑attacks in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area push Russian units back from the city’s outskirts, lifting market confidence that Russia will not capture the town by the deadline
Russian forces launch a fresh offensive on Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, but Ukrainian counter‑attacks halt any advance – ISW noted that Russian units pushed south of the
September 30, 2026 jumps to 60%10%
Russian forces launch a fresh offensive on Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, but Ukrainian counter‑attacks halt any advance – ISW noted that Russian units pushed south of the settlement and opened new attacks on the eastern outskirts, yet Ukrainian forces “counterattacked in the area,” prompting traders to raise the capture probability .
Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes hit Russian positions in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area – Geolocated footage published on May 2‑3 showed Ukrainian forces striking
September 30, 2026 plunges to 43%17%
Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes hit Russian positions in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area – Geolocated footage published on May 2‑3 showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in eastern Kostyantynivka and nearby villages, signalling strong Ukrainian resistance and driving the.
ISW reports Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in eastern and central Kostyantynivka;
May 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Russian mil‑bloggers again claim a push, but analysts say the city remains contested
ISW (May 3) documents Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in eastern and southern Kostyantynivka, confirming that Russian infiltrations remain limited and Ukrainian defenses
May 31, 2026 plunges to 15%16%
ISW (May 3) documents Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in eastern and southern Kostyantynivka, confirming that Russian infiltrations remain limited and Ukrainian defenses are active; the market falls back
The Guardian highlighted that over 1,300 Russian drones had been deployed against Kostyantynivka since May 1, underscoring a massive aerial onslaught and further eroding
June 30, 2026 drops to 26%5%
The Guardian highlighted that over 1,300 Russian drones had been deployed against Kostyantynivka since May 1, underscoring a massive aerial onslaught and further eroding confidence in Ukrainian defence
Reuters reports Russian troops inching to within 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, but Ukrainian top army official warns the city remains heavily defended, tempering
May 31, 2026 jumps to 12%5%
Reuters reports Russian troops inching to within 1 km of Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, but Ukrainian top army official warns the city remains heavily defended, tempering optimism
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian attacks on Russian positions in eastern Kostyantynivka and nearby villages;
May 31, 2026 drops to 9%7%
ISW assesses no Russian advance in the last 24 hours
The Guardian reports Russian troops “inching closer” to Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian officials saying Russian forces now control an area about 1 km from the city’s southern
May 31, 2026 surges to 31%17%
The Guardian reports Russian troops “inching closer” to Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian officials saying Russian forces now control an area about 1 km from the city’s southern outskirts
ISW’s “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9” highlighted a Russian‑set May 30 deadline to reach Kramatorsk’s outskirts and noted a slowdown in Russian activity around
May 31, 2026 plunges to 7%23%
ISW’s “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 9” highlighted a Russian‑set May 30 deadline to reach Kramatorsk’s outskirts and noted a slowdown in Russian activity around Kostyantynivka, which coincided with the market’s slide to its lowest level of 7 %
Reuters update: Russian forces now control only a “grey zone” around Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian positions still holding the core – The latest battlefield snapshot cemented the
June 30, 2026 dips to 31%1%
Reuters update: Russian forces now control only a “grey zone” around Kostyantynivka, with Ukrainian positions still holding the core – The latest battlefield snapshot cemented the market’s low‑probability view.
Reuters reports that Russian Defence Ministry announced control of Novodmytrivka north of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian sources simultaneously highlighted a surge of 83 Russian
May 31, 2026 plunges to 7%19%
Reuters reports that Russian Defence Ministry announced control of Novodmytrivka north of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian sources simultaneously highlighted a surge of 83 Russian assaults with limited success, leading traders to view the claim skeptically and push the
No new confirmed Russian breakthroughs reported;
May 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
market settles near 20 % as traders(no specific source needed for the lack of news).
ISW reports fresh Russian attacks near Kostyantynivka but no breakthrough;
June 30, 2026 drops to 35%13%
Ukrainian counter‑strikes intensify, pushing the market to its lowest level
Ukrainian forces reported fierce fighting and new Russian attacks on the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian drone strikes continued to destroy Russian armor,
June 30, 2026 dips to 34%1%
Ukrainian forces reported fierce fighting and new Russian attacks on the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, but Ukrainian drone strikes continued to destroy Russian armor, reinforcing doubts about a Russian capture
Russian MoD claims seizure of Novodmytrivka east of Kostyantynivka;
May 31, 2026 drops to 26%12%
Ukrainian sources dispute full control, leading to a modest
Russian MoD claims seizure of Illinivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka) but ISW notes Russian forces still conducting infiltration missions without gaining fire‑control, tempering
May 31, 2026 plunges to 22%16%
Russian MoD claims seizure of Illinivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka) but ISW notes Russian forces still conducting infiltration missions without gaining fire‑control, tempering optimism
Russian MoD claims seizure of Illinivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka), yet Ukrainian commanders report Russian assaults still failing to gain fire‑control and increased drone use
April 30, 2026 dips to 0%3%
Russian MoD claims seizure of Illinivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka), yet Ukrainian commanders report Russian assaults still failing to gain fire‑control and increased drone use without results
ISW notes a sharp rise in Russian personnel losses (720 troops reported on Feb 6) and a slowdown in Russian mechanized assaults, feeding market sentiment that a capture by June 30
June 30, 2026 drops to 35%13%
ISW notes a sharp rise in Russian personnel losses (720 troops reported on Feb 6) and a slowdown in Russian mechanized assaults, feeding market sentiment that a capture by June 30 is unlikely
ISW assessment notes continued Russian offensive but no confirmed advance;
May 31, 2026 drops to 25%8%
milbloggers claim a Ukrainian counter‑attack in Kostyantynivka, leading to a
ISW assessment states Russian forces continued operations in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area but made no confirmed gain;
May 31, 2026 drops to 25%13%
milbloggers claim a Ukrainian counter‑attack in the city
ISW: Russian offensive continues in Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area but no confirmed advance;
April 30, 2026 drops to 3%5%
mil‑bloggers’ claims of seizing Illinivka are disputed
ISW assessment (May 4) reports that Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction but “did not advance as Ukrainian forces counter‑attacked,”
May 31, 2026 rises to 28%4%
ISW assessment (May 4) reports that Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kostyantynivka direction but “did not advance as Ukrainian forces counter‑attacked,” reinforcing expectations of a protracted fight and pushing the
Ukrainian 16th Army Corps repels a motorised assault by Russia’s 127th Rifle Regiment near Vovchanski Khutory;
April 30, 2026 dips to 6%4%
ISW notes Ukrainian forces maintain positions in southeastern Kostyantynivka
ISW analysis showed Russian advances stalled;
December 31, 2026 dips to 77%4%
Ukrainian anti‑drone nets were deployed around key roads, limiting further infiltration
ISW assessment notes Russian MLRS, aerial bomb and drone strikes damaging half of Slovyansk’s high‑rise buildings and continued assaults on Kostyantynivka, indicating a heavy‑fire
December 31, 2026 dips to 92%3%
ISW assessment notes Russian MLRS, aerial bomb and drone strikes damaging half of Slovyansk’s high‑rise buildings and continued assaults on Kostyantynivka, indicating a heavy‑fire push but also stiff Ukrainian resistance, which coincides with the market’s first post‑January dip
Russian Defence Ministry announces capture of nearby village Novodmytrivka, but satellite mapping shows Russian control only ~1 km from Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts,
May 31, 2026 surges to 31%17%
Russian Defence Ministry announces capture of nearby village Novodmytrivka, but satellite mapping shows Russian control only ~1 km from Kostyantynivka’s southern outskirts, prompting mixed market reaction
ISW’s “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4” noted that Russian forces had made no territorial gain in the Kostyantynivka direction and were being repelled by Ukrainian
May 31, 2026 plunges to 14%31%
ISW’s “Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 4” noted that Russian forces had made no territorial gain in the Kostyantynivka direction and were being repelled by Ukrainian counter‑attacks, driving the
Geolocated footage released on 10 Apr shows Ukrainian forces hitting Russian positions northeast of Kostyantynivka, suggesting Russian momentum is limited; the market rebounds
May 31, 2026 jumps to 24%12%
Geolocated footage released on 10 Apr shows Ukrainian forces hitting Russian positions northeast of Kostyantynivka, suggesting Russian momentum is limited; the market rebounds modestly
ISW reports continued Russian attacks in the Kostyantynivka direction but no confirmed territorial gains;
April 30, 2026 dips to 8%4%
mil‑bloggers’ claims of advances are unverified
Mil‑blogger claim of Russian advance west of Illinivka is unverified;
May 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
ISW reports Ukrainian forces still holding positions north of Stinky, suggesting Russian progress stalled
ISW’s April 23 offensive‑campaign assessment again states Russian forces made no confirmed gains in the Kostyantynivka sector, reinforcing doubts and contributing to the steep
May 31, 2026 drops to 26%9%
ISW’s April 23 offensive‑campaign assessment again states Russian forces made no confirmed gains in the Kostyantynivka sector, reinforcing doubts and contributing to the steep drop that followed
Russian milblogger claims of a “major advance” in eastern Kostyantynivka are contradicted by ISW footage showing only small‑scale infiltrations and Ukrainian strikes, prompting a
May 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Russian milblogger claims of a “major advance” in eastern Kostyantynivka are contradicted by ISW footage showing only small‑scale infiltrations and Ukrainian strikes, prompting a sharp drop in the market
ISW notes that Russian forces launched their first infiltration missions on the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka on 24 Oct 2025 and have made no significant gains in the six
May 31, 2026 plunges to 14%37%
ISW notes that Russian forces launched their first infiltration missions on the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka on 24 Oct 2025 and have made no significant gains in the six months since, casting doubt on a rapid capture
ISW analysis shows Russian forces only reaching the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with the southeastern “gray zone” still contested and high casualty rates slowing the
April 30, 2026 rises to 12%3%
ISW analysis shows Russian forces only reaching the eastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka, with the southeastern “gray zone” still contested and high casualty rates slowing the assault
Putin signs an Easter cease‑fire decree, halting combat for 24 hours;
April 30, 2026 dips to 38%3%
Russian offensives pause and no advance is reported
President Zelensky reports Russia set a deadline to capture Kostyantynivka by end‑April;
April 30, 2026 drops to 12%10%
ISW notes Russian forces have not advanced despite intense fighting
During President Zelensky’s Istanbul visit, a Russian drone strike on the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka road kills a civilian woman, prompting international condemnation and raising
June 30, 2026 dips to 60%4%
During President Zelensky’s Istanbul visit, a Russian drone strike on the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka road kills a civilian woman, prompting international condemnation and raising doubts about Russian control
Russian milbloggers claim a failed motor‑bike assault and the seizure of nearby villages;
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%7%
ISW notes no confirmed Russian gains
A Russian mil‑blogger posted “significant gains” west of the city;
June 30, 2026 rises to 52%1%
ISW later classified the claim as exaggerated, causing a modest rebound
Russian forces conduct infiltration operations east of Berestok;
June 30, 2026 dips to 64%4%
ISW assesses Ukrainian advances along the Pokrovsk‑Kostyantynivka highway, weakening Russian momentum
ISW reported two failed Russian mechanized assaults near Chasiv Yar (northeast of Kostyantynivka) and a redeployment of Russian tank units to the Pokrovsk front, signaling a
December 31, 2026 dips to 84%4%
ISW reported two failed Russian mechanized assaults near Chasiv Yar (northeast of Kostyantynivka) and a redeployment of Russian tank units to the Pokrovsk front, signaling a slowdown in the Kostyantynivka offensive
Russian troops reached the zinc plant in central Kostyantynivka after an infiltration operation, but Ukrainian defenders held the surrounding districts, causing the market to edge
December 31, 2026 drops to 82%6%
Russian troops reached the zinc plant in central Kostyantynivka after an infiltration operation, but Ukrainian defenders held the surrounding districts, causing the market to edge lower
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (May 4) notes two failed mechanised assaults near Chasiv Yar and no gains around Kostyantynivka – The assessment of stalled offensives
June 30, 2026 drops to 37%10%
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (May 4) notes two failed mechanised assaults near Chasiv Yar and no gains around Kostyantynivka – The assessment of stalled offensives triggered a 10‑point drop.
Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults in downtown Kostyantynivka, retaining the railway station – Confirmation of Ukrainian control of a key hub lowered confidence in a swift
June 30, 2026 drops to 64%5%
Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults in downtown Kostyantynivka, retaining the railway station – Confirmation of Ukrainian control of a key hub lowered confidence in a swift Russian capture.
Russian milbloggers criticize exaggerated claims;
June 30, 2026 drops to 76%5%
ISW notes no tactical progress since October 2025 – Skepticism about Russian statements caused the first notable dip after a March‑peak.
Both sides report mixed advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, but Russian milbloggers note intensified attacks north of Kostyantynivka, tempering the earlier
June 30, 2026 drops to 71%8%
Both sides report mixed advances in the Kostyantynivka‑Druzhkivka area, but Russian milbloggers note intensified attacks north of Kostyantynivka, tempering the earlier Ukrainian‑gain optimism
Russian units used white‑phosphorus munitions and a FAB‑1500 glide bomb on southwestern Kostyantynivka, sparking international condemnation and raising doubts about Russia’s
June 30, 2026 drops to 73%7%
Russian units used white‑phosphorus munitions and a FAB‑1500 glide bomb on southwestern Kostyantynivka, sparking international condemnation and raising doubts about Russia’s ability to hold the town
ISW reports Russian advance stalls west of Pokrovsk and no significant gains near Kostyantynivka – The assessment that Russia could not capitalize on recent captures dampened
June 30, 2026 jumps to 83%5%
ISW reports Russian advance stalls west of Pokrovsk and no significant gains near Kostyantynivka – The assessment that Russia could not capitalize on recent captures dampened optimism, but traders still
Russian Defence Ministry claims capture of villages south of Kostyantynivka, including Berestok – The announcement of taking Berestok suggested a rapid southern push, prompting a
June 30, 2026 jumps to 75%14%
Russian Defence Ministry claims capture of villages south of Kostyantynivka, including Berestok – The announcement of taking Berestok suggested a rapid southern push, prompting a sharp rise in the “yes”
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Ukraine no longer held positions south of Berestok, a village just south of Kostyantynivka, after Russian forces claimed its
June 30, 2026 rises to 74%3%
Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Ukraine no longer held positions south of Berestok, a village just south of Kostyantynivka, after Russian forces claimed its capture
ISW assessment shows Russian advances slowed;
December 31, 2026 dips to 90%1%
Ukrainian forces repelled attacks near Pryvillya and Berestok, leading to a modest
Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade deployed anti‑drone nets around key supply routes in Kostyantynivka, and Ukrainian officials said the nets had blunted a Russian infiltration
December 31, 2026 dips to 87%3%
Ukrainian 24th Mechanized Brigade deployed anti‑drone nets around key supply routes in Kostyantynivka, and Ukrainian officials said the nets had blunted a Russian infiltration attempt, leading traders to trim the “yes” probability
Ukrainian analysts reported that Russian advances stalled;
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
ISW noted no “tactically significant gains” in the Kostyantynivka direction for six months
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces marginally advancing in southern Kostyantynivka;
June 30, 2026 dips to 70%1%
milbloggers claim further gains on the town’s northern flank
ISW assessment (May 4 2026) confirms Russian forces have infiltrated Kostyantynivka’s eastern outskirts since 24 Oct 2025 but have made no “tactically significant” gains in six
December 31, 2026 dips to 86%3%
ISW assessment (May 4 2026) confirms Russian forces have infiltrated Kostyantynivka’s eastern outskirts since 24 Oct 2025 but have made no “tactically significant” gains in six months
ISW assessment listed multiple Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka (including toward Illinivka and Stepanivka) and highlighted “false reports” but still showed heavy fighting,
December 31, 2026 drops to 87%7%
ISW assessment listed multiple Russian attacks around Kostyantynivka (including toward Illinivka and Stepanivka) and highlighted “false reports” but still showed heavy fighting, prompting a modest pull‑back
ISW’s Jan 27 2026 campaign assessment listed multiple Russian assaults around Kostyantynivka (north‑east Minkivka, south‑west Stepanivka, etc.), confirming continued offensive
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%3%
ISW’s Jan 27 2026 campaign assessment listed multiple Russian assaults around Kostyantynivka (north‑east Minkivka, south‑west Stepanivka, etc.), confirming continued offensive activity
ISW analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets reports Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups are tasked to capture the western and eastern flanks of Kostyantynivka, signalling a coordinated
December 31, 2026 rises to 94%4%
ISW analyst Kostyantyn Mashovets reports Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups are tasked to capture the western and eastern flanks of Kostyantynivka, signalling a coordinated push
Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reports Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups are tasked to capture the western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka, signalling a
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%4%
Ukrainian observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reports Russian Dzerzhinsk and Bakhmut tactical groups are tasked to capture the western and eastern halves of Kostyantynivka, signalling a coordinated final push
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of the villages Stepanivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka) and Staroukrainka, signalling a new foothold on the city’s western
December 31, 2026 jumps to 93%5%
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the capture of the villages Stepanivka (south‑west of Kostyantynivka) and Staroukrainka, signalling a new foothold on the city’s western flank
Critical Threats reported intensive Russian attacks on multiple villages around Kostyantynivka (Markove, Minkivka, Oleksandro‑Shultyne, etc.) and a new Russian push toward the
December 31, 2026 dips to 91%3%
Critical Threats reported intensive Russian attacks on multiple villages around Kostyantynivka (Markove, Minkivka, Oleksandro‑Shultyne, etc.) and a new Russian push toward the city’s western edge
Critical Threats reported Russian attacks on villages north and east of Kostyantynivka (including Kindrativka, Oleksiivka and Minkivka) on 30‑31 Dec 2025, signalling intensified
December 31, 2026 rises to 93%4%
Critical Threats reported Russian attacks on villages north and east of Kostyantynivka (including Kindrativka, Oleksiivka and Minkivka) on 30‑31 Dec 2025, signalling intensified pressure on the city
Russian offensive campaign assessment reported fresh attacks north and east of Kostyantynivka on 30‑31 December, with mil‑bloggers noting Russian forces pushing into several
December 31, 2026 dips to 88%1%
Russian offensive campaign assessment reported fresh attacks north and east of Kostyantynivka on 30‑31 December, with mil‑bloggers noting Russian forces pushing into several nearby villages
Russian forces launched a coordinated attack north‑east of Kostyantynivka, hitting villages such as Kindrativka and Oleksandro‑Shultyne;
December 31, 2026 jumps to 94%7%
mil‑bloggers reported heavy fighting and limited Ukrainian resistance
Geolocated footage shows Russian forces marginally advancing in southeastern Kostyantynivka;
December 31, 2026 rises to 92%4%
drones and missiles continue heavy strikes
Russian commander Sergei Medvedev says Russian forces have taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and are clearing the centre, promising to seize most of the city by
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Russian commander Sergei Medvedev says Russian forces have taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and are clearing the centre, promising to seize most of the city by mid‑December
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev said Russian troops had seized eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and aimed to capture most of the city by mid‑December
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev said Russian troops had seized eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and aimed to capture most of the city by mid‑December 2025
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev announced that Russian forces had taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and aimed to seize most of the city by
December 31, 2026 surges to 89%39%
Russian Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev announced that Russian forces had taken eastern and southeastern Kostyantynivka and aimed to seize most of the city by mid‑December 2025
Russia’s Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev said Russian troops had already taken the southeastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and aimed to capture most of the city by
December 31, 2026 surges to 88%38%
Russia’s Southern Grouping commander Sergei Medvedev said Russian troops had already taken the southeastern outskirts of Kostyantynivka and aimed to capture most of the city by mid‑December
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions