Russia remains deeply committed to its ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, where advances have stalled amid heavy losses, prompting President Putin to issue a fourth decree in 2026 expanding authorized armed forces personnel by 15,500 to over 2.44 million. Recent large-scale drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter reflect efforts to pressure Kyiv without diverting resources elsewhere. Western assessments, including from Danish intelligence, note no signs of preparations for an outright invasion of additional territory, as such operations would require months of visible buildup that Moscow has not undertaken while sustaining current operations. Trader pricing at 92.5% for no new invasion in 2026 reflects this sustained focus and capacity constraints.