Recent US-mediated trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11 produced agreement on a large-scale prisoner exchange but no progress toward a broader ceasefire, as Russia reiterated demands for Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas and other regions plus limits on NATO expansion. US envoys followed up with meetings involving Putin and Ukrainian officials, signaling plans to expand future rounds to include European partners while addressing post-war security guarantees. A short US-brokered local truce around Oleshky in late October held without violations before lapsing, after which fighting resumed amid ongoing strikes. These developments underscore persistent gaps between the sides' positions on demarcation lines and monitoring mechanisms, shaping trader assessments of near-term ceasefire prospects.