Persistent hostilities and the absence of any scheduled bilateral summit explain the 97.8 percent implied probability that Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not shake hands by June 30. A U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire in mid-May collapsed amid mutual violations, followed by Russia's largest drone strikes on Kyiv since the war began and reciprocal Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure. Putin has stated he will meet Zelenskyy only after experts finalize a lasting peace agreement, positioning any direct encounter as the final signing step rather than a negotiating forum. Low-level contacts continue through prisoner exchanges, yet core disputes over territory and security guarantees remain unresolved, with no diplomatic calendar set for leader-level talks before the deadline. An unforeseen multilateral breakthrough or sudden territorial concession could still alter the trajectory, though current momentum points strongly against such rapid convergence.