Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% for a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30, driven by the absence of any credible reports, official announcements, or intelligence indicators of internal plotting against President Zelenskyy in recent weeks. Martial law remains in effect since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion, suspending elections and centralizing command under unified military and civilian leadership focused on frontline defense, with no major defections or dissent from key figures like General Kyrylo Budanov. Earlier 2026 cabinet reshuffles addressed corruption scandals and political rivals without fracturing cohesion. While mobilization tensions and war fatigue persist, they have not escalated to organized challenges. Late-breaking scenarios like battlefield collapse, high-level betrayal, or explosive scandals could shift odds, though structural barriers under martial law limit feasibility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
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Jun 30, 2026
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Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% for a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30, driven by the absence of any credible reports, official announcements, or intelligence indicators of internal plotting against President Zelenskyy in recent weeks. Martial law remains in effect since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion, suspending elections and centralizing command under unified military and civilian leadership focused on frontline defense, with no major defections or dissent from key figures like General Kyrylo Budanov. Earlier 2026 cabinet reshuffles addressed corruption scandals and political rivals without fracturing cohesion. While mobilization tensions and war fatigue persist, they have not escalated to organized challenges. Late-breaking scenarios like battlefield collapse, high-level betrayal, or explosive scandals could shift odds, though structural barriers under martial law limit feasibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ET
Volume
$9,714End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% for a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30, driven by the absence of any credible reports, official announcements, or intelligence indicators of internal plotting against President Zelenskyy in recent weeks. Martial law remains in effect since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion, suspending elections and centralizing command under unified military and civilian leadership focused on frontline defense, with no major defections or dissent from key figures like General Kyrylo Budanov. Earlier 2026 cabinet reshuffles addressed corruption scandals and political rivals without fracturing cohesion. While mobilization tensions and war fatigue persist, they have not escalated to organized challenges. Late-breaking scenarios like battlefield collapse, high-level betrayal, or explosive scandals could shift odds, though structural barriers under martial law limit feasibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,714End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 95.3% for a Ukraine coup attempt by June 30, driven by the absence of any credible reports, official announcements, or intelligence indicators of internal plotting against President Zelenskyy in recent weeks. Martial law remains in effect since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion, suspending elections and centralizing command under unified military and civilian leadership focused on frontline defense, with no major defections or dissent from key figures like General Kyrylo Budanov. Earlier 2026 cabinet reshuffles addressed corruption scandals and political rivals without fracturing cohesion. While mobilization tensions and war fatigue persist, they have not escalated to organized challenges. Late-breaking scenarios like battlefield collapse, high-level betrayal, or explosive scandals could shift odds, though structural barriers under martial law limit feasibility.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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