Ukraine faces sustained military pressure from Russian advances alongside domestic strains from government reshuffles and wartime governance challenges in mid-2026, yet no verified indicators of an imminent coup attempt—such as coordinated military dissent or large-scale protests targeting leadership—have emerged. Recent military command changes and public disputes between President Zelensky and former officials reflect internal tensions but remain contained under martial law, with postponed elections limiting opposition mobilization. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to a coup by year-end, aligning with historical base rates during active conflicts where internal power shifts stay rare absent acute leadership vacuums. Ongoing diplomatic efforts on security guarantees and potential ceasefires, along with scheduled parliamentary sessions, represent key variables that could alter elite alignments if they intensify fractures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$124,597 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
6%
$124,597 Vol.
December 31
$106,761 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ukraine faces sustained military pressure from Russian advances alongside domestic strains from government reshuffles and wartime governance challenges in mid-2026, yet no verified indicators of an imminent coup attempt—such as coordinated military dissent or large-scale protests targeting leadership—have emerged. Recent military command changes and public disputes between President Zelensky and former officials reflect internal tensions but remain contained under martial law, with postponed elections limiting opposition mobilization. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to a coup by year-end, aligning with historical base rates during active conflicts where internal power shifts stay rare absent acute leadership vacuums. Ongoing diplomatic efforts on security guarantees and potential ceasefires, along with scheduled parliamentary sessions, represent key variables that could alter elite alignments if they intensify fractures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$124,597End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ukraine faces sustained military pressure from Russian advances alongside domestic strains from government reshuffles and wartime governance challenges in mid-2026, yet no verified indicators of an imminent coup attempt—such as coordinated military dissent or large-scale protests targeting leadership—have emerged. Recent military command changes and public disputes between President Zelensky and former officials reflect internal tensions but remain contained under martial law, with postponed elections limiting opposition mobilization. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to a coup by year-end, aligning with historical base rates during active conflicts where internal power shifts stay rare absent acute leadership vacuums. Ongoing diplomatic efforts on security guarantees and potential ceasefires, along with scheduled parliamentary sessions, represent key variables that could alter elite alignments if they intensify fractures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Ukraine at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Ukrainian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Ukrainian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$124,597End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 24, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine faces sustained military pressure from Russian advances alongside domestic strains from government reshuffles and wartime governance challenges in mid-2026, yet no verified indicators of an imminent coup attempt—such as coordinated military dissent or large-scale protests targeting leadership—have emerged. Recent military command changes and public disputes between President Zelensky and former officials reflect internal tensions but remain contained under martial law, with postponed elections limiting opposition mobilization. Trader consensus assigns low implied probability to a coup by year-end, aligning with historical base rates during active conflicts where internal power shifts stay rare absent acute leadership vacuums. Ongoing diplomatic efforts on security guarantees and potential ceasefires, along with scheduled parliamentary sessions, represent key variables that could alter elite alignments if they intensify fractures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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