Ukraine’s low implied probability of a coup attempt by year-end reflects sustained civil society mobilization and institutional checks amid wartime strains. July 2026 protests in Kyiv and other cities, sparked by the dismissal of reformist Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, pressured President Zelenskyy to replace Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi with Mykhailo Drapatyi while preserving constitutional processes. Parallel anti-corruption actions by NABU and SAPO have targeted senior officials and inner-circle figures through investigations and resignations, channeling grievances into legal and public avenues rather than extraconstitutional challenges. Martial law continues to suspend elections, yet recent events demonstrate repeated public capacity to influence appointments and policy without fracturing military or political cohesion. Trader pricing aligns with this pattern of resilience, though escalation in corruption probes or unresolved defense leadership tensions could introduce volatility before the December 31 resolution date.