Russia and Ukraine recently agreed to a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, 2026, timed with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations and including a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, following mutual accusations of violations during earlier unilateral pauses. This temporary halt in kinetic activity has not produced movement toward a broader agreement, as Russian officials continue to condition any lasting ceasefire on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other occupied regions while rejecting security guarantees sought by Kyiv. Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva and elsewhere remain stalled over territorial issues and monitoring mechanisms, with no scheduled summits or votes in the immediate term that would alter the entrenched positions. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing a full official ceasefire agreement by year-end at low probability amid persistent ground offensives and diplomatic impasse.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$512,697 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
May 31
2%
June 30
12%
October 31
37%
December 31
48%
$512,697 Vol.
May 31
$201,379 Vol.
2%
June 30
$177,491 Vol.
12%
October 31
$45,405 Vol.
37%
December 31
$88,573 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine recently agreed to a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, 2026, timed with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations and including a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, following mutual accusations of violations during earlier unilateral pauses. This temporary halt in kinetic activity has not produced movement toward a broader agreement, as Russian officials continue to condition any lasting ceasefire on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other occupied regions while rejecting security guarantees sought by Kyiv. Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva and elsewhere remain stalled over territorial issues and monitoring mechanisms, with no scheduled summits or votes in the immediate term that would alter the entrenched positions. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing a full official ceasefire agreement by year-end at low probability amid persistent ground offensives and diplomatic impasse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$512,697End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia and Ukraine recently agreed to a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, 2026, timed with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations and including a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, following mutual accusations of violations during earlier unilateral pauses. This temporary halt in kinetic activity has not produced movement toward a broader agreement, as Russian officials continue to condition any lasting ceasefire on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other occupied regions while rejecting security guarantees sought by Kyiv. Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva and elsewhere remain stalled over territorial issues and monitoring mechanisms, with no scheduled summits or votes in the immediate term that would alter the entrenched positions. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing a full official ceasefire agreement by year-end at low probability amid persistent ground offensives and diplomatic impasse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$512,697End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia and Ukraine recently agreed to a U.S.-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11, 2026, timed with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations and including a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange, following mutual accusations of violations during earlier unilateral pauses. This temporary halt in kinetic activity has not produced movement toward a broader agreement, as Russian officials continue to condition any lasting ceasefire on Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas and other occupied regions while rejecting security guarantees sought by Kyiv. Ongoing U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva and elsewhere remain stalled over territorial issues and monitoring mechanisms, with no scheduled summits or votes in the immediate term that would alter the entrenched positions. Trader consensus reflects these barriers, pricing a full official ceasefire agreement by year-end at low probability amid persistent ground offensives and diplomatic impasse.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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