Ukraine’s consistent rejection of Russian demands for full withdrawal from remaining Donbas territory under Kyiv’s control underpins the market’s strong consensus against an agreement before 2027. Recent US-mediated trilateral talks and proposals for limited measures, such as mutual energy infrastructure pauses, have not altered core positions, with Russia continuing to insist on ceding all of Donetsk and Luhansk while Ukraine prioritizes security guarantees and reciprocity. Ukrainian forces’ recent counteroffensive gains near Lyman and the fortress belt have further reduced pressure for concessions, and President Zelensky has repeatedly framed such steps as unacceptable to domestic opinion and likely to encourage further Russian aims. Traders see limited realistic shifts absent major battlefield reversals or leadership changes within the resolution window.