Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% implied probability on the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, reflecting Russia's dominant recent form with incremental territorial advances in Donetsk and Kherson offsetting Ukraine's limited counterstrike momentum via drone strikes. The US-mediated three-day truce from May 9-11 expired amid mutual violation accusations and fresh Russian barrages as of May 13, falling far short of a full ceasefire while core matchup dynamics—Ukraine's NATO aspirations and sovereignty demands—remain unresolved after Geneva talks deadlocked last month. Absent breakthroughs like Zelenskyy conceding neutrality or a formal treaty signing by year-end, traders view the parlay's multi-condition hurdle as a significant barrier, pricing slim upset potential despite Trump's optimism.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$457,698 Vol.
$457,698 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$457,698 Vol.
$457,698 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% implied probability on the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, reflecting Russia's dominant recent form with incremental territorial advances in Donetsk and Kherson offsetting Ukraine's limited counterstrike momentum via drone strikes. The US-mediated three-day truce from May 9-11 expired amid mutual violation accusations and fresh Russian barrages as of May 13, falling far short of a full ceasefire while core matchup dynamics—Ukraine's NATO aspirations and sovereignty demands—remain unresolved after Geneva talks deadlocked last month. Absent breakthroughs like Zelenskyy conceding neutrality or a formal treaty signing by year-end, traders view the parlay's multi-condition hurdle as a significant barrier, pricing slim upset potential despite Trump's optimism.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Market Opened: Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ET
Volume
$457,698End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% implied probability on the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, reflecting Russia's dominant recent form with incremental territorial advances in Donetsk and Kherson offsetting Ukraine's limited counterstrike momentum via drone strikes. The US-mediated three-day truce from May 9-11 expired amid mutual violation accusations and fresh Russian barrages as of May 13, falling far short of a full ceasefire while core matchup dynamics—Ukraine's NATO aspirations and sovereignty demands—remain unresolved after Geneva talks deadlocked last month. Absent breakthroughs like Zelenskyy conceding neutrality or a formal treaty signing by year-end, traders view the parlay's multi-condition hurdle as a significant barrier, pricing slim upset potential despite Trump's optimism.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Russia+x+Ukraine+2026+Peace+Parlay.pdf
Volume
$457,698End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 12:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 80.5% implied probability on the Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay, reflecting Russia's dominant recent form with incremental territorial advances in Donetsk and Kherson offsetting Ukraine's limited counterstrike momentum via drone strikes. The US-mediated three-day truce from May 9-11 expired amid mutual violation accusations and fresh Russian barrages as of May 13, falling far short of a full ceasefire while core matchup dynamics—Ukraine's NATO aspirations and sovereignty demands—remain unresolved after Geneva talks deadlocked last month. Absent breakthroughs like Zelenskyy conceding neutrality or a formal treaty signing by year-end, traders view the parlay's multi-condition hurdle as a significant barrier, pricing slim upset potential despite Trump's optimism.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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