Ongoing hostilities and stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations continue to drive trader consensus against a Ukrainian peace referendum passing before 2027. As of mid-August 2026, talks remain frozen following the February shift in U.S. priorities to the Iran conflict, with only limited prisoner exchanges emerging from earlier trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators in August have not yet produced concrete advances, while core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and neutrality persist amid Russia's demands and Ukraine's martial law restrictions that bar national votes until hostilities end. Recent Russian statements expressing conditional openness to resumed talks and planned U.S. envoy visits represent the latest diplomatic signals, yet neither side has altered preconditions enough to enable a deal or subsequent referendum within the timeline. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a verified ceasefire framework agreed before year-end or successful lifting of martial law tied to major concessions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUkraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027?
5% chance
$63,449 Vol.
$63,449 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$63,449 Vol.
$63,449 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing hostilities and stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations continue to drive trader consensus against a Ukrainian peace referendum passing before 2027. As of mid-August 2026, talks remain frozen following the February shift in U.S. priorities to the Iran conflict, with only limited prisoner exchanges emerging from earlier trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators in August have not yet produced concrete advances, while core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and neutrality persist amid Russia's demands and Ukraine's martial law restrictions that bar national votes until hostilities end. Recent Russian statements expressing conditional openness to resumed talks and planned U.S. envoy visits represent the latest diplomatic signals, yet neither side has altered preconditions enough to enable a deal or subsequent referendum within the timeline. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a verified ceasefire framework agreed before year-end or successful lifting of martial law tied to major concessions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$63,449End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing hostilities and stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations continue to drive trader consensus against a Ukrainian peace referendum passing before 2027. As of mid-August 2026, talks remain frozen following the February shift in U.S. priorities to the Iran conflict, with only limited prisoner exchanges emerging from earlier trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators in August have not yet produced concrete advances, while core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and neutrality persist amid Russia's demands and Ukraine's martial law restrictions that bar national votes until hostilities end. Recent Russian statements expressing conditional openness to resumed talks and planned U.S. envoy visits represent the latest diplomatic signals, yet neither side has altered preconditions enough to enable a deal or subsequent referendum within the timeline. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a verified ceasefire framework agreed before year-end or successful lifting of martial law tied to major concessions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially passed in Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war.
A qualifying referendum will be considered to be passed if a majority of valid votes cast nationwide support the proposal. Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$63,449End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing hostilities and stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations continue to drive trader consensus against a Ukrainian peace referendum passing before 2027. As of mid-August 2026, talks remain frozen following the February shift in U.S. priorities to the Iran conflict, with only limited prisoner exchanges emerging from earlier trilateral meetings in Abu Dhabi and Geneva. Fresh Ukrainian proposals delivered to U.S. negotiators in August have not yet produced concrete advances, while core disputes over territory, security guarantees, and neutrality persist amid Russia's demands and Ukraine's martial law restrictions that bar national votes until hostilities end. Recent Russian statements expressing conditional openness to resumed talks and planned U.S. envoy visits represent the latest diplomatic signals, yet neither side has altered preconditions enough to enable a deal or subsequent referendum within the timeline. Scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a verified ceasefire framework agreed before year-end or successful lifting of martial law tied to major concessions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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