Trader consensus favors no peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before 2027 at 66.5%, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts despite mixed signals from Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on May 9 that peace remains "a very long way off," echoing mutual accusations of ceasefire violations during recent short-term truces proposed by both sides. While President Putin signaled openness to meeting President Zelenskyy for a potential long-term agreement and suggested the war may be nearing an end, prior U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva last February yielded low expectations, and negotiations have paused amid ongoing military actions in Donetsk and elsewhere. Zelenskyy's insistence on no territorial concessions without security guarantees underscores deep trust deficits and unresolved core disputes like Donbas control, with no resumption timeline announced.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$547,528 Vol.
$547,528 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$547,528 Vol.
$547,528 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus favors no peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before 2027 at 66.5%, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts despite mixed signals from Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on May 9 that peace remains "a very long way off," echoing mutual accusations of ceasefire violations during recent short-term truces proposed by both sides. While President Putin signaled openness to meeting President Zelenskyy for a potential long-term agreement and suggested the war may be nearing an end, prior U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva last February yielded low expectations, and negotiations have paused amid ongoing military actions in Donetsk and elsewhere. Zelenskyy's insistence on no territorial concessions without security guarantees underscores deep trust deficits and unresolved core disputes like Donbas control, with no resumption timeline announced.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$547,528End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus favors no peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before 2027 at 66.5%, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts despite mixed signals from Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on May 9 that peace remains "a very long way off," echoing mutual accusations of ceasefire violations during recent short-term truces proposed by both sides. While President Putin signaled openness to meeting President Zelenskyy for a potential long-term agreement and suggested the war may be nearing an end, prior U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva last February yielded low expectations, and negotiations have paused amid ongoing military actions in Donetsk and elsewhere. Zelenskyy's insistence on no territorial concessions without security guarantees underscores deep trust deficits and unresolved core disputes like Donbas control, with no resumption timeline announced.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$547,538End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors no peace deal between Ukraine and Russia before 2027 at 66.5%, driven by stalled diplomatic efforts despite mixed signals from Moscow. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated on May 9 that peace remains "a very long way off," echoing mutual accusations of ceasefire violations during recent short-term truces proposed by both sides. While President Putin signaled openness to meeting President Zelenskyy for a potential long-term agreement and suggested the war may be nearing an end, prior U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva last February yielded low expectations, and negotiations have paused amid ongoing military actions in Donetsk and elsewhere. Zelenskyy's insistence on no territorial concessions without security guarantees underscores deep trust deficits and unresolved core disputes like Donbas control, with no resumption timeline announced.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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