Ongoing military operations, including intensified drone and missile exchanges in mid-2026, alongside Russia's occupation of roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, underscore the absence of conditions for a comprehensive settlement. Core disputes persist over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, Ukrainian security guarantees short of NATO membership, and the scope of any ceasefire. Russian officials stated in July 2026 that no immediate prospects exist for resuming formal talks, rejecting Ukrainian proposals for direct leader-level meetings and extended pauses. Prior trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges and holiday ceasefires without advancing on substantive issues. European diplomatic initiatives have met similar resistance, reinforcing trader consensus that a binding agreement remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17% chance
$2,557,120 Vol.
$2,557,120 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
17% chance
$2,557,120 Vol.
$2,557,120 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military operations, including intensified drone and missile exchanges in mid-2026, alongside Russia's occupation of roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, underscore the absence of conditions for a comprehensive settlement. Core disputes persist over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, Ukrainian security guarantees short of NATO membership, and the scope of any ceasefire. Russian officials stated in July 2026 that no immediate prospects exist for resuming formal talks, rejecting Ukrainian proposals for direct leader-level meetings and extended pauses. Prior trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges and holiday ceasefires without advancing on substantive issues. European diplomatic initiatives have met similar resistance, reinforcing trader consensus that a binding agreement remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,557,120End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military operations, including intensified drone and missile exchanges in mid-2026, alongside Russia's occupation of roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, underscore the absence of conditions for a comprehensive settlement. Core disputes persist over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, Ukrainian security guarantees short of NATO membership, and the scope of any ceasefire. Russian officials stated in July 2026 that no immediate prospects exist for resuming formal talks, rejecting Ukrainian proposals for direct leader-level meetings and extended pauses. Prior trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges and holiday ceasefires without advancing on substantive issues. European diplomatic initiatives have met similar resistance, reinforcing trader consensus that a binding agreement remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,557,120End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations, including intensified drone and missile exchanges in mid-2026, alongside Russia's occupation of roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory, underscore the absence of conditions for a comprehensive settlement. Core disputes persist over territorial control in Donbas and other regions, Ukrainian security guarantees short of NATO membership, and the scope of any ceasefire. Russian officials stated in July 2026 that no immediate prospects exist for resuming formal talks, rejecting Ukrainian proposals for direct leader-level meetings and extended pauses. Prior trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced only limited prisoner exchanges and holiday ceasefires without advancing on substantive issues. European diplomatic initiatives have met similar resistance, reinforcing trader consensus that a binding agreement remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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