Russia's political system remains a consolidated personalist autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, with no verified signs of organized military or elite mobilization against the leadership as of mid-August 2026. Heightened Kremlin security protocols implemented since March— including surveillance of staff and restrictions on close aides—responded to earlier reports of internal concerns tied to Ukraine-related drone strikes and elite friction, yet these measures have coincided with continuity in command structures and no subsequent challenges. The regime's centralized control over security services, media, and patronage networks, combined with the absence of recent public defections or coordinated opposition from figures such as Sergei Shoigu, supports trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% "No" probability. Ongoing war dynamics and economic pressures have generated periodic speculation but have not produced the institutional fractures or rapid shifts historically associated with successful power transitions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$118,354 Vol.
$118,354 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$118,354 Vol.
$118,354 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system remains a consolidated personalist autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, with no verified signs of organized military or elite mobilization against the leadership as of mid-August 2026. Heightened Kremlin security protocols implemented since March— including surveillance of staff and restrictions on close aides—responded to earlier reports of internal concerns tied to Ukraine-related drone strikes and elite friction, yet these measures have coincided with continuity in command structures and no subsequent challenges. The regime's centralized control over security services, media, and patronage networks, combined with the absence of recent public defections or coordinated opposition from figures such as Sergei Shoigu, supports trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% "No" probability. Ongoing war dynamics and economic pressures have generated periodic speculation but have not produced the institutional fractures or rapid shifts historically associated with successful power transitions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$118,354End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system remains a consolidated personalist autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, with no verified signs of organized military or elite mobilization against the leadership as of mid-August 2026. Heightened Kremlin security protocols implemented since March— including surveillance of staff and restrictions on close aides—responded to earlier reports of internal concerns tied to Ukraine-related drone strikes and elite friction, yet these measures have coincided with continuity in command structures and no subsequent challenges. The regime's centralized control over security services, media, and patronage networks, combined with the absence of recent public defections or coordinated opposition from figures such as Sergei Shoigu, supports trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% "No" probability. Ongoing war dynamics and economic pressures have generated periodic speculation but have not produced the institutional fractures or rapid shifts historically associated with successful power transitions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$118,354End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's political system remains a consolidated personalist autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, with no verified signs of organized military or elite mobilization against the leadership as of mid-August 2026. Heightened Kremlin security protocols implemented since March— including surveillance of staff and restrictions on close aides—responded to earlier reports of internal concerns tied to Ukraine-related drone strikes and elite friction, yet these measures have coincided with continuity in command structures and no subsequent challenges. The regime's centralized control over security services, media, and patronage networks, combined with the absence of recent public defections or coordinated opposition from figures such as Sergei Shoigu, supports trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% "No" probability. Ongoing war dynamics and economic pressures have generated periodic speculation but have not produced the institutional fractures or rapid shifts historically associated with successful power transitions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions