Russia’s political system remains a consolidated autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, who continues to exercise centralized authority through loyal security services, the military high command, and constitutional arrangements extending his tenure potentially to 2036. Earlier 2026 reports of tightened Kremlin security measures, prompted by unspecified European intelligence assessments of internal risks, produced temporary speculation but yielded no verified plots or actions by mid-August. Putin has maintained a visible schedule of domestic and international engagements, with no public challenges from elite factions or institutional actors emerging in recent months. Traders price the low probability of a coup attempt accordingly, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated capacity to neutralize opposition and sustain elite cohesion amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$118,354 Vol.
$118,354 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
7% chance
$118,354 Vol.
$118,354 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s political system remains a consolidated autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, who continues to exercise centralized authority through loyal security services, the military high command, and constitutional arrangements extending his tenure potentially to 2036. Earlier 2026 reports of tightened Kremlin security measures, prompted by unspecified European intelligence assessments of internal risks, produced temporary speculation but yielded no verified plots or actions by mid-August. Putin has maintained a visible schedule of domestic and international engagements, with no public challenges from elite factions or institutional actors emerging in recent months. Traders price the low probability of a coup attempt accordingly, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated capacity to neutralize opposition and sustain elite cohesion amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volume
$118,354End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s political system remains a consolidated autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, who continues to exercise centralized authority through loyal security services, the military high command, and constitutional arrangements extending his tenure potentially to 2036. Earlier 2026 reports of tightened Kremlin security measures, prompted by unspecified European intelligence assessments of internal risks, produced temporary speculation but yielded no verified plots or actions by mid-August. Putin has maintained a visible schedule of domestic and international engagements, with no public challenges from elite factions or institutional actors emerging in recent months. Traders price the low probability of a coup attempt accordingly, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated capacity to neutralize opposition and sustain elite cohesion amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$118,354End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s political system remains a consolidated autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, who continues to exercise centralized authority through loyal security services, the military high command, and constitutional arrangements extending his tenure potentially to 2036. Earlier 2026 reports of tightened Kremlin security measures, prompted by unspecified European intelligence assessments of internal risks, produced temporary speculation but yielded no verified plots or actions by mid-August. Putin has maintained a visible schedule of domestic and international engagements, with no public challenges from elite factions or institutional actors emerging in recent months. Traders price the low probability of a coup attempt accordingly, reflecting the regime’s demonstrated capacity to neutralize opposition and sustain elite cohesion amid the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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