Russia's political system has demonstrated continued consolidation under President Vladimir Putin following the September 2026 State Duma elections, in which United Russia secured a supermajority through managed processes, limited opposition participation, and high reported turnout. Security agencies remain aligned with the presidential administration, while repression and institutional controls have neutralized organized dissent, keeping elite and public challenges contained despite war fatigue, economic strains, and Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory. Analysts note that an insider coup or mass unrest remains unlikely given the regime's risk aversion, loyalty structures, and ability to manage grievances without systemic rupture. Trader consensus around a 96 percent probability of no coup attempt in 2026 reflects this entrenched stability. Shifts could still arise from unforeseen elite fractures, a major battlefield reversal prompting internal realignment, or acute health or succession uncertainties around the president.