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icon for Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

icon for Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

$538,845 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$538,845 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Donald Tusk

Donald Tusk

$13,572 Vol.

59%

icon for Friedrich Merz

Friedrich Merz

$74,768 Vol.

53%

icon for Ursula von der Leyen

Ursula von der Leyen

$10,139 Vol.

37%

icon for Mark Rutte

Mark Rutte

$9,812 Vol.

35%

icon for Mark Carney

Mark Carney

$11,714 Vol.

24%

icon for Emmanuel Macron

Emmanuel Macron

$7,779 Vol.

17%

icon for JD Vance

JD Vance

$146,481 Vol.

12%

icon for António Guterres

António Guterres

$9,614 Vol.

14%

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$108,957 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff completed their first visit to Kyiv on September 6, 2026, following talks in Moscow with Vladimir Putin, reflecting the Trump administration’s intensified diplomatic push to advance ceasefire negotiations. Trader consensus assigns them probabilities above 94 percent for another visit by year-end, consistent with their central role in shuttle diplomacy and Ukraine’s emphasis on direct engagement. European leaders such as Donald Tusk hold elevated odds near 89 percent due to ongoing EU coordination and scheduled summits, while figures like Ursula von der Leyen and Mark Rutte reflect sustained NATO and Commission involvement. In contrast, probabilities for Donald Trump and JD Vance remain low at 4–13 percent amid presidential priorities and historical patterns of limited high-level US travel to the conflict zone. Upcoming multilateral events through December, including potential follow-on talks, provide the primary catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$538,845
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff completed their first visit to Kyiv on September 6, 2026, following talks in Moscow with Vladimir Putin, reflecting the Trump administration’s intensified diplomatic push to advance ceasefire negotiations. Trader consensus assigns them probabilities above 94 percent for another visit by year-end, consistent with their central role in shuttle diplomacy and Ukraine’s emphasis on direct engagement. European leaders such as Donald Tusk hold elevated odds near 89 percent due to ongoing EU coordination and scheduled summits, while figures like Ursula von der Leyen and Mark Rutte reflect sustained NATO and Commission involvement. In contrast, probabilities for Donald Trump and JD Vance remain low at 4–13 percent amid presidential priorities and historical patterns of limited high-level US travel to the conflict zone. Upcoming multilateral events through December, including potential follow-on talks, provide the primary catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$538,845
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:59 PM ET

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "António Costa" at 100%, followed by "Maia Sandu" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" has generated $538.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" is "António Costa" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Maia Sandu" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.