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Geopolitics·Ukraine

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

icon for Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?
Geopolitics·Ukraine

Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?

NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$5,030 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Keith Kellogg

Keith Kellogg

$40 Vol.

81%

icon for Mark Rutte

Mark Rutte

$20 Vol.

76%

icon for Jared Kushner

Jared Kushner

$100 Vol.

69%

icon for Steve Witkoff

Steve Witkoff

$100 Vol.

68%

icon for Donald Tusk

Donald Tusk

$40 Vol.

63%

icon for António Costa

António Costa

$40 Vol.

62%

icon for Ursula von der Leyen

Ursula von der Leyen

$755 Vol.

58%

icon for Friedrich Merz

Friedrich Merz

$223 Vol.

49%

icon for Emmanuel Macron

Emmanuel Macron

$211 Vol.

47%

icon for Maia Sandu

Maia Sandu

$219 Vol.

46%

icon for Mark Carney

Mark Carney

$475 Vol.

32%

icon for António Guterres

António Guterres

$200 Vol.

18%

icon for Donald Trump

Donald Trump

$66 Vol.

11%

icon for JD Vance

JD Vance

$1,581 Vol.

26%

icon for Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham

$960 Vol.

40%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.European diplomatic engagement with Ukraine remains active amid the ongoing conflict, with multiple heads of state and government conducting visits in 2026 to signal support and advance security cooperation. Recent examples include European Council President António Costa and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in February, alongside participants at the July Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit and British Prime Minister meetings in Kyiv. Parallel U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva involving senior envoys have shaped expectations around high-level travel by administration figures. The security environment, including Russian strikes and air defense needs, continues to influence scheduling, while scheduled summits and bilateral commitments through year-end provide clear windows for additional visits by European or other international leaders. Trader assessments reflect these patterns of sustained Western engagement alongside procedural and risk considerations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,030
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.European diplomatic engagement with Ukraine remains active amid the ongoing conflict, with multiple heads of state and government conducting visits in 2026 to signal support and advance security cooperation. Recent examples include European Council President António Costa and Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in February, alongside participants at the July Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit and British Prime Minister meetings in Kyiv. Parallel U.S.-Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva involving senior envoys have shaped expectations around high-level travel by administration figures. The security environment, including Russian strikes and air defense needs, continues to influence scheduling, while scheduled summits and bilateral commitments through year-end provide clear windows for additional visits by European or other international leaders. Trader assessments reflect these patterns of sustained Western engagement alongside procedural and risk considerations.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$5,030
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual visits Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as the listed individual physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Ukraine. Whether or not the listed individual enters Ukrainian airspace during the timeframe of this market will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Keith Kellogg" at 81%, followed by "Mark Rutte" at 76%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 81¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 29, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" is "Keith Kellogg" at 81%, meaning the market assigns a 81% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Mark Rutte" at 76%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will visit Ukraine by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.