United Russia's commanding 95% trader consensus for securing the most seats in Russia's September 18-20 State Duma election stems from its structural dominance as the incumbent ruling party in a managed electoral system blending proportional representation above a 5% threshold and single-member constituencies, reinforced by administrative resources and historical supermajorities like 324 seats in 2021. Recent April polls from FOM (37%) and VCIOM (28%) show subdued support amid economic stagnation, Q1 GDP contraction, 14.5% interest rates, and Putin's approval dipping to 65.6%—its lowest since the Ukraine war—yet traders anticipate familiar mobilization tactics amid suppressed opposition, including CPRF arrests and New People's constrained rise to 6-13%. Challenges could arise from wartime turnout collapse, internet blackout backlash boosting systemic rivals like New People or LDPR, or exposed irregularities, though Kremlin preparations signal continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUnited Russia (ER) 95.0%
New People (NL) 2.9%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) <1%
$1,328,020 Vol.
$1,328,020 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
95%
New People (NL)
3%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
<1%
Rodina
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
<1%
United Russia (ER) 95.0%
New People (NL) 2.9%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1.1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) <1%
$1,328,020 Vol.
$1,328,020 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
United Russia (ER)
$513,245 Vol.
95%
New People (NL)
$79,285 Vol.
3%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$101,292 Vol.
1%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$228,134 Vol.
1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$78,666 Vol.
<1%
Rodina
$219,446 Vol.
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$107,952 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 95% trader consensus for securing the most seats in Russia's September 18-20 State Duma election stems from its structural dominance as the incumbent ruling party in a managed electoral system blending proportional representation above a 5% threshold and single-member constituencies, reinforced by administrative resources and historical supermajorities like 324 seats in 2021. Recent April polls from FOM (37%) and VCIOM (28%) show subdued support amid economic stagnation, Q1 GDP contraction, 14.5% interest rates, and Putin's approval dipping to 65.6%—its lowest since the Ukraine war—yet traders anticipate familiar mobilization tactics amid suppressed opposition, including CPRF arrests and New People's constrained rise to 6-13%. Challenges could arise from wartime turnout collapse, internet blackout backlash boosting systemic rivals like New People or LDPR, or exposed irregularities, though Kremlin preparations signal continuity.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Market Opened: Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$1,328,020End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.United Russia's commanding 95% trader consensus for securing the most seats in Russia's September 18-20 State Duma election stems from its structural dominance as the incumbent ruling party in a managed electoral system blending proportional representation above a 5% threshold and single-member constituencies, reinforced by administrative resources and historical supermajorities like 324 seats in 2021. Recent April polls from FOM (37%) and VCIOM (28%) show subdued support amid economic stagnation, Q1 GDP contraction, 14.5% interest rates, and Putin's approval dipping to 65.6%—its lowest since the Ukraine war—yet traders anticipate familiar mobilization tactics amid suppressed opposition, including CPRF arrests and New People's constrained rise to 6-13%. Challenges could arise from wartime turnout collapse, internet blackout backlash boosting systemic rivals like New People or LDPR, or exposed irregularities, though Kremlin preparations signal continuity.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$1,328,020End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...United Russia's commanding 95% trader consensus for securing the most seats in Russia's September 18-20 State Duma election stems from its structural dominance as the incumbent ruling party in a managed electoral system blending proportional representation above a 5% threshold and single-member constituencies, reinforced by administrative resources and historical supermajorities like 324 seats in 2021. Recent April polls from FOM (37%) and VCIOM (28%) show subdued support amid economic stagnation, Q1 GDP contraction, 14.5% interest rates, and Putin's approval dipping to 65.6%—its lowest since the Ukraine war—yet traders anticipate familiar mobilization tactics amid suppressed opposition, including CPRF arrests and New People's constrained rise to 6-13%. Challenges could arise from wartime turnout collapse, internet blackout backlash boosting systemic rivals like New People or LDPR, or exposed irregularities, though Kremlin preparations signal continuity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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