AfD leads recent polls for the September 6, 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election at 41–43 percent, ahead of the CDU at 22–24 percent, with smaller parties clustered near or below the 5 percent threshold for Bundestag entry. An absolute majority of the 83 seats requires roughly 42 mandates, which remains possible if enough minor parties fall short and redistribute seats. However, current surveys place AfD short of the consistent 44-plus percent needed for a reliable seat majority even under favorable threshold effects, and historical patterns in German state elections show volatility in final turnout and vote distribution. Other parties maintain a firewall against AfD coalitions, limiting governance paths to an outright majority that traders view as uncertain two weeks before voting.