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Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election

icon for Colombia Presidential Election
Politics·Global Elections

Colombia Presidential Election

Abelardo de la Espriella 43%

Iván Cepeda Castro 39%

Paloma Valencia 18.6%

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) <1%

Polymarket

$28,769,576 Vol.

Abelardo de la Espriella 43%

Iván Cepeda Castro 39%

Paloma Valencia 18.6%

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB) <1%

Polymarket

$28,769,576 Vol.

icon for Abelardo de la Espriella

Abelardo de la Espriella

$1,119,914 Vol.

43%

icon for Iván Cepeda Castro

Iván Cepeda Castro

$964,441 Vol.

39%

icon for Paloma Valencia

Paloma Valencia

$1,168,190 Vol.

19%

icon for Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

Luis Gilberto Murillo (CRB)

$1,742,359 Vol.

<1%

icon for Claudia López (IND)

Claudia López (IND)

$1,113,088 Vol.

<1%

icon for Sergio Fajardo (DC)

Sergio Fajardo (DC)

$1,720,789 Vol.

<1%

icon for Roy Barreras

Roy Barreras

$1,045,840 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carlos Felipe Córdoba

Carlos Felipe Córdoba

$586,019 Vol.

<1%

icon for Vicky Dávila (IND)

Vicky Dávila (IND)

$2,852,846 Vol.

<1%

icon for David Luna Sánchez (IND)

David Luna Sánchez (IND)

$1,739,061 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

Juan Daniel Oviedo (IND)

$1,517,319 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

Gustavo Bolívar (HC)

$5,762,070 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

Juan Manuel Galán (NL)

$708,113 Vol.

<1%

icon for Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

Germán Vargas Lleras (RC)

$1,781,573 Vol.

<1%

icon for Mauricio Cárdenas

Mauricio Cárdenas

$2,493,805 Vol.

<1%

icon for Daniel Quintero

Daniel Quintero

$694,239 Vol.

<1%

icon for Enrique Peñalosa

Enrique Peñalosa

$1,305,568 Vol.

<1%

icon for Juan Carlos Pinzón

Juan Carlos Pinzón

$430,214 Vol.

<1%

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Candidate M a narrow 49.5% implied probability to win Colombia's May 31 presidential first-round vote or subsequent runoff, edging Abelardo de la Espriella at 42.5% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 38.5%, reflecting a fragmented right-wing vote amid no clear frontrunner. Late April polls like Invamer (Cepeda 44%, de la Espriella 22%, Paloma Valencia 20%) and AtlasIntel (Cepeda 38%, de la Espriella 30%) show Cepeda leading but the market diverging higher on de la Espriella's surge as a security-focused outsider appealing to anti-Petro voters, fueled by April's pre-election violence wave. Right fragmentation between de la Espriella and fading Valencia keeps the race tight; endorsements, debates, or further incidents could consolidate support and tip probabilities ahead of the June 28 runoff if triggered.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$28,769,576
End Date
Jun 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices Candidate M a narrow 49.5% implied probability to win Colombia's May 31 presidential first-round vote or subsequent runoff, edging Abelardo de la Espriella at 42.5% and Iván Cepeda Castro at 38.5%, reflecting a fragmented right-wing vote amid no clear frontrunner. Late April polls like Invamer (Cepeda 44%, de la Espriella 22%, Paloma Valencia 20%) and AtlasIntel (Cepeda 38%, de la Espriella 30%) show Cepeda leading but the market diverging higher on de la Espriella's surge as a security-focused outsider appealing to anti-Petro voters, fueled by April's pre-election violence wave. Right fragmentation between de la Espriella and fading Valencia keeps the race tight; endorsements, debates, or further incidents could consolidate support and tip probabilities ahead of the June 28 runoff if triggered.

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.

This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Volume
$28,769,576
End Date
Jun 21, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2025, 1:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Colombia Presidential Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 19 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Abelardo de la Espriella" at 43%, followed by "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 39%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 43¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Colombia Presidential Election" has generated $28.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Colombia Presidential Election," browse the 19 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Colombia Presidential Election" is "Abelardo de la Espriella" at 43%, meaning the market assigns a 43% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Iván Cepeda Castro" at 39%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Colombia Presidential Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.