Romania’s pro-European grand coalition collapsed on May 5 after a no-confidence motion backed by the Social Democrats (PSD) and the opposition Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) ousted Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan’s cabinet. President Nicușor Dan has opened consultations to rebuild a parliamentary majority, yet the National Liberals (PNL) and Save Romania Union (USR) have ruled out renewed cooperation with the PSD following its alliance with AUR to topple the government. The Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) remains a potential swing partner, while AUR’s rising support adds pressure without opening clear paths to power. This fluid post-collapse landscape, with no early elections scheduled before 2028, sustains tight trader probabilities across multiple coalition scenarios as parties weigh fiscal reforms, EU fund access, and minority-government options.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPNL + USR + UDMR 16%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 4.7%
AUR 4.5%
UDMR 4.1%
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
PSD
31%
PNL
41%
USR
1%
UDMR
4%
AUR
5%
PSD + PNL
28%
PSD + USR
4%
PSD + UDMR
42%
PSD + AUR
39%
PNL + USR
3%
PNL + UDMR
46%
PNL + AUR
10%
USR + UDMR
1%
USR + AUR
1%
UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
5%
PSD + PNL + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR
4%
PSD + USR + AUR
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR
16%
PNL + USR + AUR
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
4%
USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
39%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
Other
43%
PNL + USR + UDMR 16%
PSD + PNL + UDMR 4.7%
AUR 4.5%
UDMR 4.1%
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
PSD
$30 Vol.
31%
PNL
$101 Vol.
41%
USR
$785 Vol.
1%
UDMR
$580 Vol.
4%
AUR
$30 Vol.
5%
PSD + PNL
$118 Vol.
28%
PSD + USR
$456 Vol.
4%
PSD + UDMR
$36 Vol.
42%
PSD + AUR
$122 Vol.
39%
PNL + USR
$51 Vol.
3%
PNL + UDMR
$67 Vol.
46%
PNL + AUR
$160 Vol.
10%
USR + UDMR
$250 Vol.
1%
USR + AUR
$640 Vol.
1%
UDMR + AUR
$330 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
$30 Vol.
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
$65 Vol.
5%
PSD + PNL + AUR
$84 Vol.
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR
$305 Vol.
4%
PSD + USR + AUR
$297 Vol.
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
$369 Vol.
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR
$230 Vol.
16%
PNL + USR + AUR
$298 Vol.
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
$154 Vol.
4%
USR + UDMR + AUR
$260 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
$30 Vol.
39%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
$319 Vol.
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
$336 Vol.
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
$361 Vol.
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$319 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$356 Vol.
1%
Other
$50 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romania’s pro-European grand coalition collapsed on May 5 after a no-confidence motion backed by the Social Democrats (PSD) and the opposition Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) ousted Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan’s cabinet. President Nicușor Dan has opened consultations to rebuild a parliamentary majority, yet the National Liberals (PNL) and Save Romania Union (USR) have ruled out renewed cooperation with the PSD following its alliance with AUR to topple the government. The Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) remains a potential swing partner, while AUR’s rising support adds pressure without opening clear paths to power. This fluid post-collapse landscape, with no early elections scheduled before 2028, sustains tight trader probabilities across multiple coalition scenarios as parties weigh fiscal reforms, EU fund access, and minority-government options.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
Volume
$7,617End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.Romania’s pro-European grand coalition collapsed on May 5 after a no-confidence motion backed by the Social Democrats (PSD) and the opposition Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) ousted Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan’s cabinet. President Nicușor Dan has opened consultations to rebuild a parliamentary majority, yet the National Liberals (PNL) and Save Romania Union (USR) have ruled out renewed cooperation with the PSD following its alliance with AUR to topple the government. The Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) remains a potential swing partner, while AUR’s rising support adds pressure without opening clear paths to power. This fluid post-collapse landscape, with no early elections scheduled before 2028, sustains tight trader probabilities across multiple coalition scenarios as parties weigh fiscal reforms, EU fund access, and minority-government options.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Volume
$7,617End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Romania’s pro-European grand coalition collapsed on May 5 after a no-confidence motion backed by the Social Democrats (PSD) and the opposition Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) ousted Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan’s cabinet. President Nicușor Dan has opened consultations to rebuild a parliamentary majority, yet the National Liberals (PNL) and Save Romania Union (USR) have ruled out renewed cooperation with the PSD following its alliance with AUR to topple the government. The Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) remains a potential swing partner, while AUR’s rising support adds pressure without opening clear paths to power. This fluid post-collapse landscape, with no early elections scheduled before 2028, sustains tight trader probabilities across multiple coalition scenarios as parties weigh fiscal reforms, EU fund access, and minority-government options.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions