The dominant 92% implied probability for cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary reflects the absence of France's largest left-wing forces, including La France Insoumise and the Socialist Party, which have declined to participate in the October 11 vote organized by smaller groups such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, and Debout!. Internal Socialist divisions, highlighted after the March 2026 municipal elections, combined with separate presidential ambitions and the exclusion of figures like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, have prevented the broad coalition needed for a viable joint 2027 candidate. Traders price the outcome accordingly due to confirmed non-participation and unresolved procedural disputes. A reversal would require coordinated last-minute endorsements or factional reconciliation ahead of the deadline, though current positioning makes such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCanceled 92.1%
François Ruffin 1.2%
Marine Tondelier <1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$202,724 Vol.
$202,724 Vol.
Oct 11, 2026
Canceled
92%
François Ruffin
1%
Marine Tondelier
1%
Clémentine Autain
1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
<1%
Canceled 92.1%
François Ruffin 1.2%
Marine Tondelier <1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$202,724 Vol.
$202,724 Vol.
Oct 11, 2026
Canceled
$67,250 Vol.
92%
François Ruffin
$31,112 Vol.
1%
Marine Tondelier
$49,561 Vol.
1%
Clémentine Autain
$7,357 Vol.
1%
Lydie Massard
$43,228 Vol.
<1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
$4,216 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The dominant 92% implied probability for cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary reflects the absence of France's largest left-wing forces, including La France Insoumise and the Socialist Party, which have declined to participate in the October 11 vote organized by smaller groups such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, and Debout!. Internal Socialist divisions, highlighted after the March 2026 municipal elections, combined with separate presidential ambitions and the exclusion of figures like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, have prevented the broad coalition needed for a viable joint 2027 candidate. Traders price the outcome accordingly due to confirmed non-participation and unresolved procedural disputes. A reversal would require coordinated last-minute endorsements or factional reconciliation ahead of the deadline, though current positioning makes such shifts improbable.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Market Opened: May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volume
$202,724End Date
Oct 11, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The dominant 92% implied probability for cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary reflects the absence of France's largest left-wing forces, including La France Insoumise and the Socialist Party, which have declined to participate in the October 11 vote organized by smaller groups such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, and Debout!. Internal Socialist divisions, highlighted after the March 2026 municipal elections, combined with separate presidential ambitions and the exclusion of figures like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, have prevented the broad coalition needed for a viable joint 2027 candidate. Traders price the outcome accordingly due to confirmed non-participation and unresolved procedural disputes. A reversal would require coordinated last-minute endorsements or factional reconciliation ahead of the deadline, though current positioning makes such shifts improbable.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$202,724End Date
Oct 11, 2026Market Opened
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant 92% implied probability for cancellation of the 2026 United Left primary reflects the absence of France's largest left-wing forces, including La France Insoumise and the Socialist Party, which have declined to participate in the October 11 vote organized by smaller groups such as Les Écologistes, L'Après, and Debout!. Internal Socialist divisions, highlighted after the March 2026 municipal elections, combined with separate presidential ambitions and the exclusion of figures like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, have prevented the broad coalition needed for a viable joint 2027 candidate. Traders price the outcome accordingly due to confirmed non-participation and unresolved procedural disputes. A reversal would require coordinated last-minute endorsements or factional reconciliation ahead of the deadline, though current positioning makes such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions