This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a trader consensus edge over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff set for May 26, following neither securing a March 3 primary majority amid a crowded field where challengers like Beth Van Duyne, Dawn Buckingham, and Wesley Hunt faded. Recent University of Houston Hobby School polling from early May shows Paxton leading 48%-45% among likely GOP primary voters, bolstered by his appeal to the conservative base and higher expected turnout enthusiasm, while Cornyn leverages incumbency and establishment support despite escalating ad attacks questioning Paxton's character. With early voting starting May 18, the closely contested race hinges on undecideds and mobilization in this skin-in-the-game market pricing Paxton's path to nomination at 60.5%.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a trader consensus edge over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff set for May 26, following neither securing a March 3 primary majority amid a crowded field where challengers like Beth Van Duyne, Dawn Buckingham, and Wesley Hunt faded. Recent University of Houston Hobby School polling from early May shows Paxton leading 48%-45% among likely GOP primary voters, bolstered by his appeal to the conservative base and higher expected turnout enthusiasm, while Cornyn leverages incumbency and establishment support despite escalating ad attacks questioning Paxton's character. With early voting starting May 18, the closely contested race hinges on undecideds and mobilization in this skin-in-the-game market pricing Paxton's path to nomination at 60.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Mar 4 2026
| National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) attacks Paxton over divorce, calling it “repulsive” |– the rare GOP‑committee criticism shocked primary voters, causing the dramatic
Ken Paxton plunges to 11%72%
| National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) attacks Paxton over divorce, calling it “repulsive” |– the rare GOP‑committee criticism shocked primary voters, causing the dramatic crash. |
Mar 3 2026
Primary results: Cornyn 43.2 % vs.
Ken Paxton jumps to 52%8%
Paxton 39.9 %; race heads to runoff, causing a dramatic swing in market sentiment
Mar 3 2026
CNN’s Decision Desk projected that Cornyn and Paxton would advance to a May 26 runoff after no candidate cleared 50 % in the primary, a result that caused a dramatic market swing
John Cornyn surges to 64%50%
CNN’s Decision Desk projected that Cornyn and Paxton would advance to a May 26 runoff after no candidate cleared 50 % in the primary, a result that caused a dramatic market swing upward
Feb 11 2026
Cornyn released a “NEVER BACK DOWN” campaign ad and publicly sought Trump’s endorsement;
John Cornyn plunges to 14%29%
the same week a University of Houston poll showed Cornyn and Paxton virtually tied at 33‑34 % each, pulling his
Feb 9 2026
Anti‑Hunt advertising spikes: AdImpact reports $5.8 million spent on attack ads against Hunt in the final weeks before the primary, contributing to a rapid 19‑point drop the next
Wesley Hunt plunges to 9%19%
Anti‑Hunt advertising spikes: AdImpact reports $5.8 million spent on attack ads against Hunt in the final weeks before the primary, contributing to a rapid 19‑point drop the next day
Jan 29 2026
Beth Van Duyne speaks at a rally for state House candidate Armin Mizani, facing a heckler incident;
this local engagement does not translate into increased Senate primary support
Dec 19 2025
| Court unseals Paxton‑Angela divorce records, media coalition gains full access |– the unsealing clarified the scandal’s details, but Paxton’s narrative of “victim of media
Ken Paxton surges to 65%21%
| Court unseals Paxton‑Angela divorce records, media coalition gains full access |– the unsealing clarified the scandal’s details, but Paxton’s narrative of “victim of media attacks” resonated with his base, reviving his market
Nov 17 2025
Media coverage highlights Beth Van Duyne celebrating legislative successes and participating in Texas politics, but also notes her trailing far behind leading Senate candidates
Media coverage highlights Beth Van Duyne celebrating legislative successes and participating in Texas politics, but also notes her trailing far behind leading Senate candidates Ken Paxton and John Cornyn in polls and fundraising
Nov 14 2025
U.S. House passes Agriculture Appropriations Act including Beth Van Duyne's END Act language to combat illicit tobacco imports, marking a legislative win but with limited impact
Beth Van Duyne dips to 0%1%
U.S. House passes Agriculture Appropriations Act including Beth Van Duyne's END Act language to combat illicit tobacco imports, marking a legislative win but with limited impact on her Senate primary viability
Jun 5 2025
Beth Van Duyne co-founds the bipartisan Creator Economy Caucus to support online content creators, signaling her legislative focus but not boosting her Senate primary prospects
Beth Van Duyne plunges to 1%49%
Beth Van Duyne co-founds the bipartisan Creator Economy Caucus to support online content creators, signaling her legislative focus but not boosting her Senate primary prospects significantly
Apr 9 2025
Paxton releases his first TV ad attacking incumbent Sen.
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
John Cornyn, officially announcing his intent to run for the U.S. Senate
Apr 9 2025
Paxton releases first TV ad attacking incumbent Sen.
Ken Paxton jumps to 55%7%
John Cornyn, framing himself as the most conservative challenger
Apr 8 2025
Ken Paxton officially announces his candidacy for U.S.
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Senate, positioning himself as the most conservative challenger to incumbent John Cornyn
Apr 3 2024
Ken Paxton officially announces he will run against incumbent Sen.
John Cornyn plunges to 34%16%
John Cornyn, turning the race into a high‑stakes intra‑party showdown
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a trader consensus edge over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff set for May 26, following neither securing a March 3 primary majority amid a crowded field where challengers like Beth Van Duyne, Dawn Buckingham, and Wesley Hunt faded. Recent University of Houston Hobby School polling from early May shows Paxton leading 48%-45% among likely GOP primary voters, bolstered by his appeal to the conservative base and higher expected turnout enthusiasm, while Cornyn leverages incumbency and establishment support despite escalating ad attacks questioning Paxton's character. With early voting starting May 18, the closely contested race hinges on undecideds and mobilization in this skin-in-the-game market pricing Paxton's path to nomination at 60.5%.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas.
If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a trader consensus edge over incumbent Senator John Cornyn in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff set for May 26, following neither securing a March 3 primary majority amid a crowded field where challengers like Beth Van Duyne, Dawn Buckingham, and Wesley Hunt faded. Recent University of Houston Hobby School polling from early May shows Paxton leading 48%-45% among likely GOP primary voters, bolstered by his appeal to the conservative base and higher expected turnout enthusiasm, while Cornyn leverages incumbency and establishment support despite escalating ad attacks questioning Paxton's character. With early voting starting May 18, the closely contested race hinges on undecideds and mobilization in this skin-in-the-game market pricing Paxton's path to nomination at 60.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Mar 4 2026
| National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) attacks Paxton over divorce, calling it “repulsive” |– the rare GOP‑committee criticism shocked primary voters, causing the dramatic
Ken Paxton plunges to 11%72%
| National Republican Senate Committee (NRSC) attacks Paxton over divorce, calling it “repulsive” |– the rare GOP‑committee criticism shocked primary voters, causing the dramatic crash. |
Mar 3 2026
Primary results: Cornyn 43.2 % vs.
Ken Paxton jumps to 52%8%
Paxton 39.9 %; race heads to runoff, causing a dramatic swing in market sentiment
Mar 3 2026
CNN’s Decision Desk projected that Cornyn and Paxton would advance to a May 26 runoff after no candidate cleared 50 % in the primary, a result that caused a dramatic market swing
John Cornyn surges to 64%50%
CNN’s Decision Desk projected that Cornyn and Paxton would advance to a May 26 runoff after no candidate cleared 50 % in the primary, a result that caused a dramatic market swing upward
Feb 11 2026
Cornyn released a “NEVER BACK DOWN” campaign ad and publicly sought Trump’s endorsement;
John Cornyn plunges to 14%29%
the same week a University of Houston poll showed Cornyn and Paxton virtually tied at 33‑34 % each, pulling his
Feb 9 2026
Anti‑Hunt advertising spikes: AdImpact reports $5.8 million spent on attack ads against Hunt in the final weeks before the primary, contributing to a rapid 19‑point drop the next
Wesley Hunt plunges to 9%19%
Anti‑Hunt advertising spikes: AdImpact reports $5.8 million spent on attack ads against Hunt in the final weeks before the primary, contributing to a rapid 19‑point drop the next day
Jan 29 2026
Beth Van Duyne speaks at a rally for state House candidate Armin Mizani, facing a heckler incident;
this local engagement does not translate into increased Senate primary support
Dec 19 2025
| Court unseals Paxton‑Angela divorce records, media coalition gains full access |– the unsealing clarified the scandal’s details, but Paxton’s narrative of “victim of media
Ken Paxton surges to 65%21%
| Court unseals Paxton‑Angela divorce records, media coalition gains full access |– the unsealing clarified the scandal’s details, but Paxton’s narrative of “victim of media attacks” resonated with his base, reviving his market
Nov 17 2025
Media coverage highlights Beth Van Duyne celebrating legislative successes and participating in Texas politics, but also notes her trailing far behind leading Senate candidates
Media coverage highlights Beth Van Duyne celebrating legislative successes and participating in Texas politics, but also notes her trailing far behind leading Senate candidates Ken Paxton and John Cornyn in polls and fundraising
Nov 14 2025
U.S. House passes Agriculture Appropriations Act including Beth Van Duyne's END Act language to combat illicit tobacco imports, marking a legislative win but with limited impact
Beth Van Duyne dips to 0%1%
U.S. House passes Agriculture Appropriations Act including Beth Van Duyne's END Act language to combat illicit tobacco imports, marking a legislative win but with limited impact on her Senate primary viability
Jun 5 2025
Beth Van Duyne co-founds the bipartisan Creator Economy Caucus to support online content creators, signaling her legislative focus but not boosting her Senate primary prospects
Beth Van Duyne plunges to 1%49%
Beth Van Duyne co-founds the bipartisan Creator Economy Caucus to support online content creators, signaling her legislative focus but not boosting her Senate primary prospects significantly
Apr 9 2025
Paxton releases his first TV ad attacking incumbent Sen.
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
John Cornyn, officially announcing his intent to run for the U.S. Senate
Apr 9 2025
Paxton releases first TV ad attacking incumbent Sen.
Ken Paxton jumps to 55%7%
John Cornyn, framing himself as the most conservative challenger
Apr 8 2025
Ken Paxton officially announces his candidacy for U.S.
Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%
Senate, positioning himself as the most conservative challenger to incumbent John Cornyn
Apr 3 2024
Ken Paxton officially announces he will run against incumbent Sen.
John Cornyn plunges to 34%16%
John Cornyn, turning the race into a high‑stakes intra‑party showdown
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions
"Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ken Paxton" at 61%, followed by "John Cornyn" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 61¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $16.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 10, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
The current frontrunner for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Ken Paxton" at 61%, meaning the market assigns a 61% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John Cornyn" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.
The resolution rules for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.
Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.
Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $16.1 million traded on “Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.
To place your first trade on "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.
On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 61¢ for "Ken Paxton" in the "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 61% chance that "Ken Paxton" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 61¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 39¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.
The "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around May 26, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.
The "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner" market has an active community of 111 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.
Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions