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Politics·Senate Primary

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Senate Primary

Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner

Kevin Hern 94%

John M. O’Connor <1%

Wayne Lonny Washington <1%

Nick Hankins <1%

Polymarket

$59,642 Vol.

Kevin Hern 94%

John M. O’Connor <1%

Wayne Lonny Washington <1%

Nick Hankins <1%

Polymarket

$59,642 Vol.

Kevin Hern

$11,927 Vol.

94%

John M. O’Connor

$1,083 Vol.

1%

Wayne Lonny Washington

$1,255 Vol.

1%

Nick Hankins

$859 Vol.

1%

Stephanie Bice

$2,879 Vol.

<1%

Markwayne Mullin

$37,901 Vol.

<1%

Donelle Harder

$893 Vol.

<1%

Ron Meinhardt

$1,197 Vol.

<1%

Tammy Swearengin

$837 Vol.

<1%

Matt Pinnell

$811 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Kevin Hern’s commanding position in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary stems from his March 2026 announcement to seek the open seat vacated by Markwayne Mullin’s nomination as homeland security secretary, combined with immediate endorsements from President Trump and the Club for Growth PAC. As the sitting representative for Oklahoma’s First District, Hern brings established name recognition, fundraising strength, and alignment with party priorities on spending restraint and election integrity. With the June 16 primary less than a month away, no rival has mounted a credible challenge in recent polling or endorsements. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, health issue, or major shift in voter turnout could still alter the outcome, though current trader consensus reflects the structural advantages Hern holds in this solidly Republican primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma.

If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$59,642
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 5:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Kevin Hern’s commanding position in the Oklahoma Republican Senate primary stems from his March 2026 announcement to seek the open seat vacated by Markwayne Mullin’s nomination as homeland security secretary, combined with immediate endorsements from President Trump and the Club for Growth PAC. As the sitting representative for Oklahoma’s First District, Hern brings established name recognition, fundraising strength, and alignment with party priorities on spending restraint and election integrity. With the June 16 primary less than a month away, no rival has mounted a credible challenge in recent polling or endorsements. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal, health issue, or major shift in voter turnout could still alter the outcome, though current trader consensus reflects the structural advantages Hern holds in this solidly Republican primary.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma.

If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$59,642
End Date
Jun 16, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 5, 2026, 5:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oklahoma. If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Kevin Hern" at 94%, followed by "John M. O’Connor" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $59.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Kevin Hern" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "John M. O’Connor" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.