Incumbent Sen. Jim Risch holds a commanding 98.9% implied probability in the Idaho Republican Senate primary on May 19, driven by his 18-year tenure, strong establishment backing, and challengers Joe Evans, Denny LaVé, and Josh Roy lacking polling traction or resources to mount a credible threat in deeply conservative Idaho. Recent candidate forums and ballot finalization a week ago highlighted Risch's policy focus on Second Amendment protections via his No REGISTRY Rights Act, reinforcing voter familiarity without notable controversies. Trader consensus reflects historical incumbent dominance in uncompetitive GOP primaries. Upsets remain possible via late voter turnout surges among anti-establishment factions, a Risch health event, or unforeseen scandal, though barriers are high with early voting underway.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$11,607 Vol.
$11,607 Vol.
Jim Risch
99%
Joe Evans
1%
$11,607 Vol.
$11,607 Vol.
Jim Risch
99%
Joe Evans
1%
If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 6:49 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Sen. Jim Risch holds a commanding 98.9% implied probability in the Idaho Republican Senate primary on May 19, driven by his 18-year tenure, strong establishment backing, and challengers Joe Evans, Denny LaVé, and Josh Roy lacking polling traction or resources to mount a credible threat in deeply conservative Idaho. Recent candidate forums and ballot finalization a week ago highlighted Risch's policy focus on Second Amendment protections via his No REGISTRY Rights Act, reinforcing voter familiarity without notable controversies. Trader consensus reflects historical incumbent dominance in uncompetitive GOP primaries. Upsets remain possible via late voter turnout surges among anti-establishment factions, a Risch health event, or unforeseen scandal, though barriers are high with early voting underway.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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