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Idaho Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for Idaho Republican Senate Primary Winner

Idaho Republican Senate Primary Winner

$11,607 Vol.

Polymarket

$11,607 Vol.

Jim Risch

$10,209 Vol.

99%

Joe Evans

$1,398 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Sen. Jim Risch holds a commanding 98.9% implied probability in the Idaho Republican Senate primary on May 19, driven by his 18-year tenure, strong establishment backing, and challengers Joe Evans, Denny LaVé, and Josh Roy lacking polling traction or resources to mount a credible threat in deeply conservative Idaho. Recent candidate forums and ballot finalization a week ago highlighted Risch's policy focus on Second Amendment protections via his No REGISTRY Rights Act, reinforcing voter familiarity without notable controversies. Trader consensus reflects historical incumbent dominance in uncompetitive GOP primaries. Upsets remain possible via late voter turnout surges among anti-establishment factions, a Risch health event, or unforeseen scandal, though barriers are high with early voting underway.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho.

If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$11,607
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:49 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Incumbent Sen. Jim Risch holds a commanding 98.9% implied probability in the Idaho Republican Senate primary on May 19, driven by his 18-year tenure, strong establishment backing, and challengers Joe Evans, Denny LaVé, and Josh Roy lacking polling traction or resources to mount a credible threat in deeply conservative Idaho. Recent candidate forums and ballot finalization a week ago highlighted Risch's policy focus on Second Amendment protections via his No REGISTRY Rights Act, reinforcing voter familiarity without notable controversies. Trader consensus reflects historical incumbent dominance in uncompetitive GOP primaries. Upsets remain possible via late voter turnout surges among anti-establishment factions, a Risch health event, or unforeseen scandal, though barriers are high with early voting underway.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho.

If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$11,607
End Date
May 19, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 6:49 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho. If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Idaho Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Jim Risch" at 99%, followed by "Joe Evans" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Idaho Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $11.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Idaho Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Idaho Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Jim Risch" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Joe Evans" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Idaho Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.