Fiona Ma’s commanding lead in the California lieutenant governor market reflects her top-two finish in the June 2026 primary and the state’s consistent Democratic tilt in statewide contests. As state treasurer, Ma secured endorsements from major labor organizations and advanced with 19.1 percent of the vote, edging out Republican Gloria Romero at 17.8 percent in a crowded field that included Josh Fryday and Michael Tubbs. The November 3 general election pits Ma against Romero, whose party switch and positions on taxes and other issues have limited her appeal in a state where Democratic nominees have won lieutenant governor races by wide margins in recent cycles. Trader pricing at 94.5 percent for Ma aligns with this structural advantage, though late developments such as turnout shifts or unforeseen controversies could still affect the final outcome before certification.