Trump's second term, which began with his January 2025 inauguration, creates substantial structural barriers to an early exit before 2027. Removal requires either resignation, invocation of the 25th Amendment by the vice president and cabinet, or impeachment followed by a two-thirds Senate conviction—outcomes that have occurred rarely in U.S. history and demand broad bipartisan support or extraordinary circumstances. With no confirmed major health events, legal disqualifications, or widespread congressional momentum for such actions as of late 2026, traders assign overwhelming probability to continuity. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden medical incapacity, a significant scandal prompting resignation, or unexpected electoral or legal developments altering the political landscape within the resolution window.